机器学习在铁路列车调度调整中的应用综述

Review on Application of Machine Learning Methods to Railway Train Operation Adjustment

随着铁路信息化进程的加快,铁路大数据与人工智能技术有力地支撑了我国铁路的高质量发展。本文回顾了近10年机器学习方法在铁路列车调度调整领域的主要研究成果,将列车调度调整问题分为列车晚点状态分析与评估、列车晚点传播预测和列车运行调整智能化决策三个方面,分别总结和分析了机器学习方法在上述三方面的应用情况。在列车晚点状态分析与评估方面,既有研究主要集中于传统统计分析,其描述和预测性能往往有限。在列车晚点传播预测方面,传统机器学习和深度学习方法被应用于晚点致因、晚点持续时长、列车晚点状态演化及晚点恢复预测问题的建模。在列车运行调整智能化决策方面,既有研究主要侧重于运用强化学习、模糊神经网络方法建模,机器学习方法应用于列车调度辅助决策系统仍是研究的主要难点和关键。在归纳了既有研究特征的基础上,展望了机器学习方法在铁路调度调整研究方面的最新动向。以深度学习为代表的高级机器学习应用于列车调度调整智能决策将是未来的发展重点。

With the rapid development of railway informatization,big data and artificial intelligence technology are providing strong support for the high-quality development of China’s railway system.The major studies of the application of machine learning methods to railway train operation adjustment in the past 10 years are reviewed.The problem of train operation adjustment is divided into three topics:analysis and evaluation of the train delay state,prediction of train delay propagation,and train operation adjustment and intelligent decision-making.The application of machine learning methods in these three topics is summarized and analyzed.Existing research on train delay analysis and evaluation mainly focuses on traditional statistical analysis,and its description and prediction performance are often limited.Traditional machine learning and deep learning methods have been applied to the modeling of the causes and duration of train delay,the evolution of train delays,and the prediction of train delay recovery.The existing research on the intelligent decision-making for train operation adjustment mainly focuses on applying reinforcement learning and fuzzy neural networks to establish models,while the application of machine learning in train dispatching support systems development remains the main difficulty and the key problem.The characteristics of the existing research are summarized.On this basis,this paper looks forward to the latest trend of using machine learning methods in the research of railway train operation adjustment.The application of advanced machine learning methods represented by deep learning in intelligent decision-making for train operation adjustment will be highly focused in the future.