关键中间品出口质量限制对模仿与创新的影响——基于南北产品质量阶梯模型的分析

The Effects of Export Quality Restrictions of Key Intermediates on Imitation and Innovation——Based on the Analysis of North-South Product Quality Ladders Model

中间品在全球化生产中扮演着十分重要的角色,关键中间品贸易不畅会制约最终品厂商的生产与研发活动,进而影响全球分工格局。本文构建了一个包含关键中间品部门的两国动态一般均衡模型,引入关键中间品不可替代性假定,量化模拟了北方国家限制关键中间品出口对其自身创新水平、南方国家技术模仿以及两国福利的影响,并考察了知识产权保护、中间品关税的调节作用。模拟结果发现:关键中间品出口质量限制不利于北方国家的技术创新及其生产的跨国转移,反而会增加南方国家的技术模仿强度。跨国投资的减少无法充分发挥两国的比较优势,这会扩大两国的收入差距,同时对两国福利水平均有不利影响。知识产权保护强度、中间品关税变化均不会改变关键中间品出口质量限制对模仿、创新的影响方向,但提高知识产权保护强度会强化关键中间品出口质量限制的创新效应、弱化模仿效应,增加中间品关税则对两种效应均有负向调节作用。本文的研究有助于理解关键中间品在内生技术创新中的重要作用,也为中国突破发达国家的技术封锁、抢占科技革命制高点提供政策参考。

Intermediate products play a very important role in global production.The poor trade of key intermediates will restrict the production and R&D activities of final products manufacturers,which will finally affect the global division of labor.This paper develops a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with key intermediates sectors in which key intermediates are assumed to be irreplaceable,and then quantitatively simulates the effects of export restrictions on key intermediates from the North on Northern innovation,Southern imitation and welfare of the two countries.Additionally,we also estimate the moderating effects of intellectual property rights(IPR)protection and intermediates tariffs.The simulation results show that the export quality restrictions of key intermediates decrease Northern innovation and transnational transfer of production,but increase Southern imitation.The decrease of transnational investment makes it impossible for two countries to give full play to their comparative advantages,which will widen the North-South income gap and damage their welfare as well.Neither the change of IPR protection nor intermediates tariffs can change the influence direction of export quality restrictions of key intermediates on innovation and imitation.However,stronger IPR protection strengthens the innovation effect and weakens the imitation effect,while higher intermediates tariffs have negative moderating effects on both.This study is of great significance for understanding the role of key intermediates in endogenous technological innovation,and also provides policy reference for China to break through the technological blockade of developed countries and seize the commanding heights of the scientific and technological revolution.