贸易中介、信息不对称与不稳定出口关系

Trade Intermediaries,Information Asymmetry and Unstable Trade Relationships

已有理论普遍认为,出口关系一经建立便会长期维持,但现实中出口关系表现出很强的"不稳定性"。本文基于2000—2016年的长观察窗口识别了中国的不稳定出口关系,尝试在信息不对称背景下从贸易中介视角对不稳定出口关系的发生进行解释。基本事实显示,不稳定出口关系占比高、发展快、分布广、潜力大,是普遍存在且需要重视的出口现象。本文引入贸易中介拓展已有理论框架,发现贸易中介通过"出口固定成本分摊"与"信息溢出"影响企业的出口行为。基准研究表明,贸易中介提升了不稳定出口关系发生的概率,降低了其中一次性出口发生的概率。基于异质性贸易中介的研究发现,普通中间商代理固定成本分摊效应,其影响与基准结论一致,专业中间商提升了一次性出口发生的概率,刻画了信息溢出带来的"被动出口",这一结论在信息不对称或不稳定性程度不同的目的地表现出显著的差异性。拓展性研究发现,贸易中介通过固定成本分摊机制会使得原有的"出口关系稳定度—生产率"排序趋于无序化,企业混同进行不稳定出口和稳定出口。本文研究意味着不稳定出口关系是中国出口广泛存在且不容忽视的组成部分,推进出口"稳中求进"有赖于引导和规范贸易中介行为,降低企业出口固定成本。

Trade theories indicate that,once established,the export relationship will keep stable while most of the relationships turn out to be“unstable”in reality.This paper identifies China’s unstable trade relationships from 2000 to 2016 and tries to explain the occurrence of unstable trade relationships from the perspective of intermediaries against the background of information asymmetry.Stylized facts show that,unstable trade relationships are characterized by high proportion,rapid development,wide distribution and great growth potential so that it is a common export phenomenon that needs attention.This paper introduces trade intermediaries to the existing theoretical framework and finds that trade intermediaries will affect the firm’s export behavior through“export fixed cost allocation”and“information spillover”.The benchmark results show that intermediaries promote the probability of the occurrence of unstable trade transactions while reduce the probability of the occurrence of one-off export events.Further study shows that,the effect of general intermediaries which proxy“export fixed cost allocation”is the same with benchmark results while the specialized intermediaries which proxy“information spillover”promote the probability of occurrence of one-off export events and capture the“passive export”.The findings above are significant heterogeneous among specific market with different degree of information asymmetry or uncertainty.This paper also finds that intermediaries disorder the existing relationship between export sustainability and total factor productivity through“export fixed cost allocation”.The conclusion indicates that widely existed unstable trade relationship is an important component of China’s export that cannot be ignored.To promote the export“progress with stability”need to guide and standardize trade intermediary activities and further reduce the fixed export cost of firms.