1901-2019年上海合作组织国家气候时空变化特征

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Climate Change in SCO Countries from 1901 to 2019

为了应对和缓解区域潜在气候变化情况,基于1901—2019年Climatic Research Unit(CRU)长时序的月平均气温和逐月降雨量格点数据集,分别采用一元线性回归法、5年滑动平均和Pettitt检验等方法分析了上合组织国家气温、降雨量的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)1901—2019年年平均气温和降雨量整体均呈显著增加趋势,其变化趋势分别为0.142℃/10 a(p<0.05)和2.395 mm/10 a(p<0.05),2000年之后上升最为显著。(2)气温变化具有显著的区域差异,由南向北随纬度升高变化速率逐渐加快,大部分区域小于0.2℃/10 a(p<0.05)。(3)气候变化具有显著的季节性特征。各季节气温呈显著增加趋势,春季升温速率较快(0.2℃/10 a,p<0.05),夏季气温变化速率较慢(0.08℃/10 a,p<0.05);春季降雨量变化趋势大(0.75 mm/10 a,p<0.05),夏季降雨量呈不显著的增加趋势(0.29 mm/10 a)。(4)上合组织气候突变遵循纬度分异规律,随纬度和海拔的升高突变时间推迟。综上,上合组织国家气候存在暖湿化趋势,春季气候变化趋势显著高于夏季,且随纬度升高,气温变化趋势逐渐加快。

In order to cope with and alleviate potential climate change in the region,it provides guidance for the high-quality development of the local ecological economy.The spatiotemporal variations of air temperature and rainfall in Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)countries were analyzed based on the CRU grid datasets of monthly mean air temperature and rainfall from 1901 to 2019 by using methods of unary linear regression,5-year moving average,the Pettitt test and other methods.The results showed that:(1)the annual average temperature and rainfall increased significantly from 1901 to 2019,with the change trend of 0.142℃/decade(p<0.05)and 2.395 mm/decade(p<0.05),respectively,and the most significant increase after 2000;(2)there were significant regional differences in the temperature change,which increased gradually from south to north along latitude,with rates<0.2℃/decade in most regions(p<0.05);(3)climate factors exhibited significant seasonal characteristics;the temperature displayed significant increasing trends in each season;the temperature rise rate in spring was 0.2℃/decade(p<0.05),while the temperature change in summer was minimum(0.08℃/10 a,p<0.05);the spring rainfall exhibited a significant increasing trend(0.75 mm/10 a,p<0.05),while the increasing trend of summer rainfall was insignificant(0.29 mm/10 a);(4)climatic change points in the SCO followed the rule of latitude differentiation,and times of change points were postponed with the increase of latitude and altitude.In summary,the climate of the SCO countries presented the warming and humidification trend.The climate change trend in spring was significantly higher than that in summer,and the temperature change trend was gradually accelerating with the increase of latitude.These results can provide theoretical support for future climate prediction and regional climate change.