社会保障支出对就业的影响:效应与机制——基于人口老龄化视角的门槛效应分析

The Impact of Social Security Expenditure on Employment:Effect and Mechanisms——Analysis of Threshold Effect Based on the Perspective of Population Aging

人口老龄化的加深对社会保障支出及就业形成了不可忽视的压力。文章基于中国31个省级面板数据,研究人口老龄化视角下社会保障支出对就业的影响机制。结果发现:社会保障支出促进就业,而人口老龄化所造成的“人口红利”趋于消失则直接表现为抑制就业。且存在区域异质性,东部地区的社会保障支出对就业的正向促进作用最大,西部地区促进作用最小;然而对于经济发达地区,社会保障支出对就业产生负效应。此外,社会保障支出与人口老龄化亦通过协同机制对就业进一步产生影响,即人口老龄化促使社会保障支出对就业的正效应边际递减;且社会保障支出对就业的影响呈现出“倒U型”,而中国正处于“倒U型”顶点的左侧。但这一过程存在门槛条件,当人口老龄化程度加深并跨越双重门槛值时,社会保障支出对就业的正效应逐渐减弱。

The deepening of the aging of the population has put pressure on social security expenditures and employment that cannot be ignored.Based on China’s 31 provincial-level panel data,this paper studies the impact mechanism of social security expenditure on employment from the perspective of population aging.The results found that social security expenditures promote employment,while the tendency of the“demographic dividend”caused by the aging of the population to disappear is directly manifested in the suppression of employment.And there is regional heterogeneity.The social security expenditure in the eastern region has the greatest positive effect on employment promotion,and the western region has the least effect.However,for economically developed areas,social security expenditures have a negative effect on employment.In addition,social security expenditures and population aging also have a further impact on employment through a coordinated mechanism.That is,the aging of the population makes the marginal positive effect of social security expenditure on employment weaken.And the impact of social security expenditures on employment presents an inverted U-shape.China is on the left side of the inverted U-shaped apex.But this process has threshold conditions.When the aging of the population deepens and crosses the double threshold,the positive effect of social security expenditure on employment gradually weakens.