从“争穷保帽”到“主动摘帽”:正向激励与农民持续增收

From “Fighting for the Poor Hat” to “Initiatively Removing the Poor Hat”:An Empirical Analysis of Positive Incentive and Rural Income

巩固拓展脱贫成果同乡村振兴有效衔接是脱贫攻坚取得全面胜利后的工作重点。本文基于2013-2019年国定贫困县面板数据,采用渐进DID方法评估了贫困县脱贫"摘帽"对农民收入的影响并进一步探讨农业机械化水平、产业发展水平、财政支出等因素的作用机制。研究发现:在完善的退出机制与正向激励措施支持下,"摘帽"县农民收入仍持续增长且增长效应在"摘帽"后三年观测期内不断上升;农民收入增长效应存在地区差异;农业机械化水平与产业发展水平对提高贫困地区内生发展动力,促进农民持续增收具有重要作用,而经济发展对财政支出的依赖导致自我发展能力不足,削弱了保障措施与正向激励措施对农民持续增收的激励作用;"摘帽"后地区消费水平同农民收入呈同方向增长,从一定程度说明完善的保障措施与正向激励措施降低了"摘帽"县陷入收入不确定性的贫困陷阱的可能性。这些发现对巩固拓展脱贫成果同乡村振兴有效衔接具有参考价值。

Consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and combining with rural revitalization are a priority of following rural development in China.This study used time-varying DID method to evaluate the effect of being removed out of the poverty list on rural income and discuss the mechanisms based on county-level panel dataset from 2013 to 2019.The results show that:being removed out of poverty has a positive effect on rural income and this effect is on an upward trend in the following three years;the improvement of rural income shows a regional heterogeneity;agricultural mechanization and industrial development level have positive moderate effect on rural income after being removed out of poverty,while the dependence of fiscal expenditure leads to the lack of self-development ability of the poor counties,which weakens the positive incentive of improving rural income;the trend of consumption level is consistent with rural income,indicating that the measures adopted after being removed out of poverty are beneficial for preventing from falling into the poverty trap.These findings provide theoretical and practical policy basis for the following rural revitalization era.