国际秩序转型视野下的乌克兰危机——基于演进过程、深层结构、解决方案的分析

The Ukrainian Crisis Is the Preview of an Overall Global Crisis——Analysis Based on the Evolution Process,Deep Structure and Solution

乌克兰危机,不仅是一场发生在俄罗斯与乌克兰之间,或俄罗斯与西方之间的冲突,而且是一场在国际权力转移敏感时期发生的多方力量之间复杂而深刻的国际冲突,同时还是21世纪以来牵动全球秩序重构、欧亚地区地缘政治格局重塑,以及人们对世界事务中关键问题重新认知的一项重大事件。乌克兰危机存在深层背景与直接诱因,其发展演进可分为10个阶段,且各有要点。乌克兰危机带来大国恶性竞争长期延续、乌克兰国内格局难以出现转机、俄罗斯面临持续挑战却有强劲抗衡能力以及争议地带诸多困境等巨大影响。其前景可能出现"大交易""大悬空""大陷阱""大转型"等情况,需要一个包含各方利益与意愿,统摄各个领域复杂需求与可能的总体性解决方案,才可能找到出路。

The Ukrainian crisis is not only a conflict occurring between Russia and Ukraine,or between Russia and the West,but also a complex and profound international conflict among multiple forces in a sensitive period of international power transfer.At the same time,it is also a major event that affects the reconstruction of the global order and the geopolitical pattern in Eurasia since beginning of the new century as well as the people’s understanding of the key issues in the world affairs.The Ukrainian crisis has a deep background and a direct cause,and its development and evolution can be divided into 10 stages,each with key points.It has brought about great impacts,such as the long-term continuation of vicious competition among great powers,the difficulty of the domestic pattern of Ukraine in turning good,Russia’s strong counterbalance ability despite continuing challenges,and many disputed areas.The prospects include "big deal","big hanging","big trap" and "big transformation".Only when there is an overall solution that takes into account the interests and wishes of all parties and coordinates the complex needs and possibilities in all fields,can people find a way out.