当代国际体系的渐变和嬗变--基于两个三十年的比较与思考

Evolution and Transformation:Comparative Reflections on Two Thirty-Year Periods of International Order

当前国际体系正处于新旧交替和质变飞跃的过渡期,筹划和推动新的国际体系建设是事关国际政治经济发展的重大问题。冷战结束以来三十年的国际体系延续和发展了二战后国际体系的主体框架,处于突变后的渐变过程,世界在“后冷战体系”和“前多极体系”之间探索和徘徊。越来越多的非西方国家在批判过时的国际关系理论,国际社会作为一个整体也在扶正祛邪中不断促进国际体系朝着更加公正、合理的方向前进。未来三十年世界将开启东西方力量相对平衡和世界多极化基本稳定的新时期,这一进程大体上与中国的第二个百年奋斗目标同步推进,国际体系将从后冷战转型期朝着构建新型国际关系和人类命运共同体的方向演进,并最终成熟定型。中国在逐步走近世界舞台中央的历史进程中,应注重加强国际体系理论建设,准确把握国际社会的主要矛盾。解决各自的发展问题和国际社会的共同挑战,对公平正义的普遍需求和供给的相对不足将越来越成为国际社会发展的主要矛盾。中国要着力解答当前和未来的时代命题,勾勒国际体系改革基本架构,进而促进和平、发展、合作、共赢的时代潮流不断向前,推动实现公正、共同富裕的新时代目标。

Today’s world is on the threshold of a new order when cumulative changes over the past thirty years promise a transformation that is expected to produce new economic and political relations in the next thirty years.The international order in the three decades following the end of the Cold War not only retained and reformed the main elements of the post-WWII architecture,but also saw significant,cumulative changes that may herald a multipolar era.An increasing number of non-Western nations have been challenging the dominant role of Western international relations theories in organizing world order and called for reform the current order to make it more just and reasonable.The next thirty years,coinciding with a period crucial for Beijing in its national revival project,is expected to see greater East-West equilibrium and multipolarity and move in the direction of building new international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.As it moves closer the center of a new world order,Beijing should focus on international relations theoretical construction and better understanding the major contradictions of the world community,i.e.,addressing national development problems,international common challenges,and human aspirations for great justice and equality.China should do more to meet the major challenges of our time and outline its vision of a reformed international system,in order to promote peace,development,win-win cooperation,justice,and common prosperity.