中东欧地区大国博弈新态势--兼论中国-中东欧国家合作面临的挑战与机遇

New Trends in the Great Power Game in Central and Eastern Europe:Challenges and Opportunities for China-CEEC Cooperation

在地缘安全、能源、价值观等方面,美国、以德国为主要代表的欧盟国家以及俄罗斯在中东欧地区有着广泛而重要的利益。三者的互动关系呈现美俄博弈主导中东欧安全形势,美德(欧)联合制俄但共识有限,美德(欧)对中国在中东欧的经济介入保持警惕但难以形成合力三个特征。随着中美竞争的持续,美德(欧)与以波兰、匈牙利为代表的中东欧国家在价值观上的分歧扩大,美德(欧)对俄罗斯的地缘政治攻势升级,中东欧地区的大国力量格局发生了新的变化。美国对中国的战略围堵压力持续加大,以德国为代表的欧盟国家对中东欧国家的控制力不断降低,俄罗斯反“守”为“攻”回应西方威胁,而德国新政府和新一届欧盟委员会对华政策更加突出价值观因素,导致中国—中东欧国家合作面临的地缘政治压力总体上有增无减。但是,美欧内部也并非铁板一块,以德国为代表的欧盟国家在中东欧控制力的弱化以及美欧与波兰、匈牙利等国关系的恶化,也为持续推进中国—中东欧国家合作带来了潜在机遇。以上因素作为影响中东欧国家对华政策的重要变量,需要密切关注。

The United States,Germany(EU),and Russia have long had extensive and far-reaching interests in Central and Eastern Europe(CEE)in terms of geo-security,energy,and values.Interactions among the three powers feature the following three characteristics:the U.S.-Russian game dominates the security situation in CEE;the U.S.-Germany(EU)unites to control Russia but with limited consensus;and the U.S.-Germany(EU)is wary of China’s economic involvement in CEE but has difficulties in forming a joint force.Along with the continued Sino-American rivalry,the widening differences in values between the U.S.-German(EU)and CEE countries represented by Poland-Hungary,and the escalation of the U.S.-German(EU)geopolitical offensive against Russia,the power configuration among the major powers in CEE has undergone new changes,namely,the Biden administration’s continued strategic containment of China,the decreasing control of Germany(EU)over CEE countries,and responding to the Western threat by turning“defensive”into“offensive”from Russian.In addition,the new German government and the new European Commission are giving more prominence to the values in their policies toward China,which will lead to an increase in the overall geopolitical pressure on China-CEEC cooperation.The weakening of German(EU)control in CEE and the deterioration of U.S.-European relations with Poland and Hungary,also bring potential opportunities for the continued promotion of China-CEEC cooperation.