气候变化下槟榔的地理分布及未来适生区预测

Prediction of Suitable Growing Areas of Areca catechu in Different Periods under Climate Changes

我国南药之一、药食两用的热带植物槟榔,其药理作用丰富,临床应用广泛。根据槟榔现有的分布记录及气象数据,利用最大熵模型MaxEnt和ArcGIS预测气候变化背景下的槟榔在我国适宜性生长区域,为其种植栽培和开发利用提供理论依据。3个时期(1970—2000年、2040—2060年、2061—2080年)不同碳排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP8.5)的模拟预测结果精度均值都达到了0.990,结果可信度极高。槟榔适生区总面积在RCP2.6情境下呈下降趋势,在RCP8.5情境下呈上升趋势;贡献率和影响力最大的气候因子为最热季降雨量,符合槟榔的生态习性;集中分布区域主要在琼、粤、桂、滇南、台等地区。

Areca catechu,the first tropical plant in South China,has abundant pharmacological effects and wide clinical application.Under the background of climate change,according to the existing distribution records and meteorological data of Areca catechu,we used MaxEnt and ArcGIS to predict and analyze the suitable growth area of Areca catechu in China,to provide the theoretical basis for its cultivation and development.In the three periods(1970-2000,2040-2060,2061-2080)with different carbon emission scenarios,the average accuracy of simulation prediction results reached 0.990,and the results were highly reliable.In RCP2.6,the total area of suitable area of Areca catechu decreased,while in RCP8.5,it increased.The climate factor with the largest contribution rate and influence was the precipitation in the hottest season,which was in line with the ecological habits of Areca catechu.It is mainly distributed in Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,southern Yunnan and Taiwan.