基于贝叶斯理论的热电偶合格判定风险

The Judgement Hazard of Thermocouple Conformity Based on Bayesian Theory

民用航空用易耗型廉金属热电偶的指标要求远高于其他行业,但在进行计量确认时,一般忽略了测量不确定度的影响,带来了较大的质量风险。本文基于贝叶斯理论,对测量过程和测量不确定度对易耗型廉金属热电偶符合性判断的特定消费者风险和全局消费者风险进行分析。探究不同测量过程和不确定度下的决策错误率风险,并提出了降低风险的方法,为易耗型廉金属热电偶的计量确认提供了参考。

The requirement of expendable base metal thermocouple used in civil aviation is much higher than that of other industries,but the influence of measurement uncertainty is generally ignored in the process of measurement confirmation,which may lead to great quality hazard.Based on Bayesian theory,this paper analyzes the total hazard and the certain hazard of judging the conformity of expendable base metal thermocouple by considering the measurement uncertainty and process.This paper probes into the decision hazards under different measurement uncertainty and processes,and puts forward the method to reduce the risks so as to provide references for metrology confirmation of expendable base metal thermocouple.