“十三五”期间天津市传染病自动预警系统运行情况分析

Analysis on the application of infectious diseases automated-alertand response system in Tianjin during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

目的分析“十三五”期间天津市接收的传染病自动预警信号流行病学特征,为“十四五”期间传染病自动预警系统的功能优化提供参考依据。方法通过“传染病自动预警信息系统”下载天津市2016—2020年传染病自动预警信号资料,通过描述性方法对预警信号特征及响应情况等进行分析。结果“十三五”期间天津市收到预警信号23660条,涉及病种39种,响应率100%,预警信号阳性率1.10%。预警信号响应时间中位数为0.53h(P_(25)-P_(75):0.19~1.17h)。2h内响应及时率为95.74%;24h内响应及时率为98.47%。预警信号数居前五位的是新型冠状病毒肺炎、其它感染性腹泻病、痢疾、麻疹及猩红热。结论“十三五”期间天津市传染病自动预警系统运行情况良好,但存在预警信号阳性率低等问题,希望“十四五”期间应根据防控需求及疾病流行特征完善预警阈值,提高工作人员工作效率。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of automatic warning signals of infectious diseases received in Tianjin during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,and to provide reference for the function optimization of automatic warning system of infectious diseases during the 14th Five-year Plan period.Methods The data of infectious disease automatic early warning signals in Tianjin from 2016 to 2020 were downloaded from the China infectious diseases automated-alert and response system(CIDARS).The characteristics and response of early warning signals were analyzed by descriptive method.Results During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,23660 early warning signals were received in Tianjin,involving 39 kinds of infectious diseases,with 100%response rate and 1.10%positive rate of early warning signals.The median response time of warning signal was 0.53 hours(P_(25)-P_(75):0.19-1.17h).95.74%of signals were responded within 2 hours and 98.47%of signals were responded within 24 hours.COVID-19,other infectious diarrhea diseases,dysentery,measles,and scarlet fever were the top five diseases with early warning signals.Conclusion During the 13th Five-Year,the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases in Tianjin runs well and has a high response rate,but the positive rate of early warning signal is low.During the 14th Five-Year,further research is needed to improve the early warning threshold according to the prevention and control needs and epidemic characteristics of different diseases,and to improve early warning positive rate.