基于多行业DSGE模型的中国碳减排政策效应

Effects of China’s carbon emission reduction policies based on the multi-sector DSGE model

碳达峰和碳中和目标的提出,标志着中国低碳减排进入新的阶段,从国家层面的宏观政策包括各个行业的行业政策都在推行各种低碳减排政策,从行业异质性视角动态分析碳减排政策的效应具有重要的学术和实践意义。为此,构建一个包含环境外部性和碳减排政策的多行业动态随机一般均衡模型,研究许可证交易和碳税两种政策情景下,行业技术冲击、税收政策和减排政策调整冲击对宏观经济、环境和行业排放的动态效应。模拟发现:许可证交易政策情景下,行业技术冲击具有明显的结构性效应,覆盖行业企业减排率上升,排放下降,而未覆盖行业排放随产出上升而上升,而在碳税政策情景下,这种差异并不明显。政府采用盯住总排放波动的碳减排政策能够有效地减少冲击带来的福利损失,提高对维持排放水平的关注程度能够减少相应的福利损失。建议政府有效地权衡经济增长和改善环境二者之间的关系,在不造成大的负面经济影响的前提下,加大减排政策力度,推广和扩大碳交易试点范围,尽快在全国建立统一的碳市场。制定碳减排政策时,考虑碳减排政策收入的返还机制,配以减税的财政政策以刺激经济,缓和减排政策的负面影响。政府应根据排放水平顺周期地动态调整碳减排政策的强度,适当提高对维持排放水平的关注程度。

The introduction of peaking carbon dioxide emissions and achieving carbon neutrality marks a new stage in carbon emission reduction in China.Various carbon emission reduction policies are being pursued,such as national-level macro policies including sectoral policies in various industries.Therefore,it is of great academic and practical significance to analyze the effects of carbon reduction policies dynamically from the perspective of sectoral heterogeneity.This study developed a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that included environmental externalities and carbon mitigation policies,to investigate the dynamic effects of sectoral technology shocks,tax policies and mitigation policy adjustment shocks on macroeconomic,environmental,and sectoral emissions under two policy scenarios:cap-and-trade and carbon tax.The results of the simulation showed that:under the cap-and-trade scenario,sectoral technology shocks had a clear structural effect,with an increase in abatement effort and a decrease in emissions for firms in the covered sectors,while emissions in the uncovered sectors rose with output,whereas under the carbon tax scenario,the difference was not significant.Government policies to reduce carbon emissions by targeting fluctuations in total emissions could be effective in reducing welfare losses from shocks,and increased attention to maintaining emission levels could reduce the corresponding welfare losses.It is recommended that the government effectively weigh the relationship between economic growth and environmental improvement,strengthen emission reduction policies,promote and expand the scope of carbon trading pilots,and introduce a national emission trading system as soon as possible.When designing carbon reduction policies,the government should consider the return mechanism of carbon reduction policy revenue,coupled with the fiscal policy of tax reduction to stimulate the economy and moderate the negative impact of the reduction policy.The government should also adjust the intensity of its carbon reduction policies in a pro-cyclical and dynamic manner according to the level of emissions and pay more attention to the appropriate maintenance of the level of emissions.