邻里效应对牧户载畜率决策的影响——北方牧区的经验证据

Impact of neighborhood effect on herders’ stocking rate decision:evidence from pastoral areas in northern China

草畜平衡管理已经在中国实施近20年,但天然草原超载过牧问题尚未得到根本解决,仍然是制约北方草原生态恢复和畜牧业健康发展的关键因素。如何进一步降低牧户载畜率,实现草畜平衡是亟待解决的问题。该研究基于社会经济学视角,理论分析了牧户载畜率决策邻里效应的存在性及其对牧户载畜率的影响效应、作用机制及异质性,并利用2020年在内蒙古、甘肃两省牧区对820户牧户的微观调查数据,采用线性均值模型、中介效应模型和分组回归等方法进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)牧户载畜率决策存在邻里效应,表现出"近墨者黑"特征,且这一效应在控制内生性后依旧存在;牧户会受邻里高载畜率、高超载过牧比例的消极驱动呈现出高载畜率和高超载过牧概率,从而陷入超载过牧的恶性循环。(2)机制分析表明,邻里效应通过提高牧户畜牧业预期收益和降低牧户的心理负担提升牧户载畜率。(3)调节作用分析表明,邻里效应会受到榜样群体的调节,村干部、党员、富人和能人等榜样群体的负向示范强化了载畜率决策的邻里效应,抑制牧户降低载畜率。(4)异质性分析表明,邻里效应在低载畜率、贫困牧户、汉族牧户和受教育程度高的牧户群体中作用更小;当政府外部生态监管严格和村域内部非正式制度健全时,邻里效应对牧户降低载畜率的抑制作用更小。根据以上结论,建议政府在微观草畜平衡管理中,通过打造高效畜牧业样板、树立生态典型、强化舆论压力、改善生态监管和注重政策瞄准等方式,破解载畜率决策邻里效应的负面影响,降低牧户载畜率。

Although forage-livestock balance management has been implemented in China for nearly 20 years,overgrazing has not yetbeen fundamentally solved.It is still a key factor restricting the ecological restoration of northern grassland and the healthy developmentof animal husbandry.Further reducing the stocking rate of herders and realizing the forage-livestock balance is an urgent issue to be ad-dressed.Based on the perspective of socioeconomics,this study theoretically analyzed the existence of a neighborhood effect in herders,stocking rate decision-making and its impact effect,mechanism,and heterogeneity.Furthermore,based on the micro-survey data of 820 herders in the pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia and Gansu in 2020,an empirical test was conducted using the linear mean model,themediating effect model,and multigroup regression.The results showed that:(1) There was a neighborhood effect in the stocking rate de-cision-making of herders,showing the characteristic of,who keeps company with the wolf will learn to howl,,and the outcome still exist-ed after controlling endogeneity.Herders would be negatively driven by their neighborhoods,high stocking rate and high overgrazing ra-tio,showing a high stocking rate and high probability of overgrazing,thus falling into a vicious cycle of overgrazing.(2) Mechanism anal-ysis showed that the neighborhood effect could increase herders,stocking rate by increasing their expected return and reducing theirpsychological burden.(3) Analysis of the moderation effect showed that model groups would moderate the neighborhood effect.The neg-ative demonstration of model groups such as village officials,party members,wealthy people and social elites strengthened the neighbor-hood effect and inhibited herders from reducing the stocking rate.(4) Heterogeneity analysis showed that the neighborhood effect wasweaker in villages with strict external ecological supervision from the government and sound informal internal systems,and among lowstocking rate herders,non-minority herders,low-income herders,and highly educated herders.Based on the above conclusions,it is rec-ommended that the government should create a high-efficiency animal husbandry model,set ecological examples,strengthen publicopinion pressure,improve environmental supervision,and pay attention to policy targeting to solve the negative impact of neighborhoodeffect on herders,stocking rate decision.