颠覆性技术识别方法研究进展述评

Review on the Research Progress of Disruptive Technology Identification Methods

颠覆性技术可能引发新一轮科技革命,是提升未来经济社会发展和国家竞争力的重要“利器”。通过对近5年颠覆性技术识别方法研究文献的梳理,归纳国内外学者关于颠覆性技术特征、颠覆性技术识别和预测方法的研究进展,为颠覆性技术的识别和培育提供参考与借鉴。重点运用文献调研的分析方法,总结5类颠覆性技术识别和预测方法的最新研究成果和局限性。结果表明,基于模型测度的分析方法、基于多维指标评估框架的分析方法和基于文献计量的分析方法仍然是颠覆性技术识别中比较常用的方法,基于大数据关联挖掘分析的方法开始被应用到颠覆性技术的识别中。由于颠覆性技术发展是一个动态的过程,未来应更多地考虑基于创新全过程,探索对颠覆性技术进行动态、分类识别。

Disruptive technology may trigger a new round of scientific and technological revolution,and is an important“sharp weapon”to enhance future economic and social development and national competitiveness.By combing the literature on disruptive technology identification in the past five years,this paper summarizes the research progress of domestic and foreign scholars on the characteristics,identification and prediction methods of disruptive technology,and provides reference for the identification and cultivation of disruptive technology.Using the analysis method of literature research,this paper summarizes the latest research results and limitations of five types of disruptive technology identification and prediction methods.The results show that the analysis methods based on model measurement,multi-dimensional index evaluation framework and bibliometrics are still commonly used in the identification of disruptive technologies,and the method based on big data association mining analysis has been applied to the identification of disruptive technologies.Since the development of disruptive technologies is a dynamic process,in the future,more consideration should be given to exploring the dynamic,classification and identification of disruptive technologies based on the entire innovation process.