基于专利价值的技术成熟度测度与分析方法研究

Research on Technology Maturity Measurement and Analysis Method Based on Patent Value

本文从专利价值视角研究技术领域发展成熟度测度分析方法,以提升方法普适性、评价多维性以及分析结果客观性。基于专利价值构建出四个维度的技术成熟度指标体系,并采用主成分分析法对指标进行自动赋权,进而通过曲线拟合和发展阶段分界点计算,分析该领域技术发展成熟现状及未来发展趋势。运用本文模型对缓控释肥技术领域(由5299条专利数据构成)进行多维度技术成熟度评价分析,结果表明:该技术领域正处于快速成长阶段,预计在2024年进入技术发展成熟阶段。基于专利价值的技术成熟度分析方法一定程度上克服了单一指标评价和单一维度分析的片面性,相对客观全面地揭示了特定领域技术发展现状。

From the perspective of patent value,this paper studies the development maturity measurement and analysis method of the technical field,in order to improve the universality of the method,the multi-dimensional evaluation and the objectivity of the analysis results.Based on the patent value,a four-dimensional technology maturity index system is constructed,and the principal component analysis method is used to automatically weight the indicators,and then through the curve fitting and development stage demarcation point calculation,the technology maturity status and future development trend in this field are analyzed.Using the model proposed in this paper,the multi-dimensional technology maturity evaluation and analysis are carried out in the field of slow and controlled release fertilizer technology(consisting of 5299 patent data).The results show that the technology field is in a stage of rapid growth and is expected to enter a mature stage of technological development in 2024.The technology maturity analysis method based on patent value overcomes the one-sidedness of single-index evaluation and single-dimensional analysis to a certain extent,and relatively objectively and comprehensively reveals the current status of technology development in specific fields.