我国石化设备失效概率计算新方法

New Methods for Calculating Failure Probability of Petrochemical Equipment in China

分析了国外石化设备可靠性数据库OREDA失效率的计算方法,提出了以OREDA数据库作为先验信息,以国内石化设备的现场可靠性数据作为抽样信息,利用泊松分布模拟石化设备失效过程。通过引入国内外数据修正系数,对常用失效率分析方法进行改进,得到了石化设备累计日历时间和累计运行时间下对应失效模式的平均失效率和标准差。结合实际压缩机案例数据,证实了计算新方法的有效性,对国内石化设备可靠性数据库建立进行了初步探索。

The calculation method of the failure rate of foreign petrochemical equipment reliability database OREDA was analyzed,and the failure process of petrochemical equipment was simulated by Poisson distribution with database OREDA as the prior information and the on-site reliability data of domestic petrochemical equipment as sampling information.By the introduction of domestic and foreign data correction coefficients,the common failure rate analysis methods were improved,and the average failure rate and standard deviation of the corresponding failure modes under the cumulative calendar time and cumulative operating time of petrochemical equipment were obtained.Combined with the actual compressor case data,the effectiveness of the new calculation method was confirmed,and the establishment of the domestic petrochemical equipment reliability database was preliminarily explored.