中国与全球能源网络的互动逻辑与格局转变

Energy globalization of China:Interaction logic and spatial transition

当前中国正处于从油气时代向可再生能源时代转变的关键时期,中国能源需求结构和能源利用形式的变化决定了中国与全球能源的互动逻辑发生了深刻转变。为更好理解中国与全球的能源互动过程,本文探讨了全球能源互动的基本理论认知,并借助复杂网络、投入产出分析等技术方法分析了中国与全球能源互动格局及其变化。研究发现中国与全球能源互动的范围不断扩大,程度不断加深,从油气贸易到可再生能源贸易,从油气为主的投资到多元化能源品种的投资,从传统能源贸易到隐含能源贸易等方面,中国逐渐塑造了多元化的全球能源格局。主要结论为:(1)"多煤少油缺气"的能源生产结构和巨大的油气需求,决定了保障海外油气供应是中国与全球能源互动最直接的逻辑,互动区域主要集中在油气富集的国家和地区。(2)随着可再生能源的发展,中国与全球能源互动逻辑从单纯的油气贸易转变为涉及可再生能源相关产品的贸易,凭借制造业优势,互动范围从油气富集的国家和地区拓展到全球拥有可再生能源发展和装机需求的国家,形成了覆盖全球主要国家和地区的可再生能源贸易新格局。(3)中国的海外能源投资目标从有限数量的东道国扩展到欧洲、东南亚等国家和地区,投资业务不仅局限在油气领域,也扩大到太阳能、风能和水能等可再生能源发电项目及电网等基础设施建设投资。(4)中国作为全球制造业大国和贸易大国,在全球化程度加深的背景下,部分能源隐含于全球生产网络和贸易网络中进行二次分配,中国与全球能源互动范围进一步拓展到与中国具有一般商品贸易关系的国家和地区,形成了全球"能源中枢"的功能。本文可为深刻认识中国与全球的能源互动关系,维护国家能源安全和参与全球能源经济治理提供理论视角与决策依据。

China is in the critical period of transforming from the oil and gas era to the renewable energy era.The changes of China’s energy demand structure and energy utilization form determine that the energy interaction logic between China and the rest of the world has undergone profound changes.In order to better understand the process of energy interaction between China and the rest of the world,this study discusses the basic theoretical cognition of global energy interaction,and analyzes the pattern and changes of energy interaction between China and the rest of the world with the help of complex network,multi-region input-output analysis and other technical methods.It is found that the scope of energy interaction between China and the rest of the world is expanding and deepening.China has gradually shaped a diversified world energy map,converting from oil and gas to renewable energy trade,from oil and gas based investment to diversified energy investment,and from conventional energy trade to embodied energy trade.The main conclusions are as follows.(1) The coal-based energy production structure and the huge demand for oil and gas determine that ensuring overseas oil and gas supply is the most direct logic of energy interaction between China and the rest of the world,and the interaction areas are mainly concentrated in oil and gas rich countries and regions.(2) With the development of renewable energy,the logic of energy interaction between China and the rest of the world has changed from oil and gas to renewable energy related products trade.With the comparative advantages in China’s manufacturing,the scope of interaction has expanded from countries and regions rich in oil and gas to countries with global renewable energy development and installation needs,forming a renewable energy trade map covering major countries and regions in the world.(3) China’s overseas energy investment target has expanded from a limited number of host countries to other regions such as Europe and Southeast Asia.The investment business is not only limited to the oil and gas field,but also has expanded to solar energy,wind energy,hydropower and other renewable electricity generation projects.(4) China is a global manufacturing and trading power.Under the background of deepening globalization,part of China’s energy is embodied the global production network and trade network for redistribution.The scope of energy interaction between China and the world is further expanded to countries with general commodity trade relations with China,forming the global "energy hub" function.This study can provide a theoretical perspective and decision-making basis for deeply understanding the energy interaction between China and the world,ensuring national energy security and participating in global energy economic governance.