2003—2017年浙江省阿尔茨海默病发病和死亡趋势分析

Trends in incidence and mortality of Alzheimer’s disease in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2017

目的分析2003—2017年浙江省阿尔茨海默病(AD)发病和死亡趋势,为制定AD防控策略提供依据。方法收集全球疾病负担研究(GBD)中国2003—2017年AD发病和死亡评估资料,采用2010年全国第六次人口普查数据标化AD发病率和死亡率;采用年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)描述2003—2017年浙江省AD发病率和死亡率变化趋势。结果 2003—2017年浙江省AD发病率从96.05/10万上升至140.96/10万,AAPC值为2.776%(P<0.05),其中2003—2005年APC值最大,为3.419%(P<0.05);AD标化发病率从102.06/10万上升至106.09/10万,AAPC值为0.274%(P<0.05),其中2003—2005年APC值最大,为1.177%(P<0.05);AD死亡率从24.60/10万上升至41.44/10万,AAPC值为3.862%(P<0.05),其中2005—2011年APC值最大,为4.667%(P<0.05);AD标化死亡率从26.83/10万上升至27.16/10万,AAPC值为0.142%(P>0.05),其中2005—2012年APC值最大,为1.048%(P<0.05)。结论 2003—2017年浙江省AD发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势。

ObjectiveTo analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of Alzheimer’s disease(AD) in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2017, so as to provide the evidence for the development of AD prevention and control strategies.MethodsThe data pertaining to the incidence and mortality of AD in China from 2003 to 2017 were collected from the Global Burden Disease Study, and standardized to the data of the Sixth National Population Census in China in2010. The trends in incidence and mortality of AD were analyzed using annual percent change(APC) and average annual percent change( AAPC) in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2017.Results96.05/105 in 2003 to 140.96/105 in 2017 in Zhejiang Province, with AAPC of 2.776%( P<0.05), and the greatest APC( 3.419%) was found during the period between 2003 and 2005( P<0.05). The standardized incidence of AD increased102.06/105 in 2003 to 106.09/105 in 2017 in Zhejiang Province, with AAPC of 0.274%( P<0.05), and the greatest APC( 1.177%) was measured during the period between 2003 and 2005( P<0.05). The mortality of AD increased from24.60/105 in 2003 to 41.44/105 in 2017 in Zhejiang Province, with AAPC of 3.862%( P<0.05), and the greatest APC(4.667%) was found during the period between 2005 and 2011( P<0.05). The standardized mortality of AD increased26.83/105 in 2003 to 27.16/105 in 2017 in Zhejiang Province, with AAPC of 0.142%( P>0.05), and the greatest APC( 1.048%) was measured during the period between 2005 and 2012( P<0.05).ConclusionBoth the incidence and mortality of AD appeared a tendency towards a rise in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2017.