俄罗斯经济的政治社会根源及国家发展前景

Political and Social Roots of Russias Economy and the Prospects for National Development

2000年以来,除2008年之前实现较高速度的恢复性增长外,俄罗斯经济在2009年之后始终低速徘徊,甚至几度陷入衰退。除油价下跌、西方制裁等外部因素外,俄罗斯政治和社会生态的变化是根本性的内在根源。重新国有化、垂直权力体系的强化并未带来经济效益的提高,反而导致产权制度边界模糊、决策反馈机制受到侵蚀、利益集团之间争斗激烈、政治精英对经济发展缺乏战略视野、畸形经济结构得不到扭转、人力资源质量日趋恶化等一系列负面后果。受气候变化、能源转型、新工业革命和全球产业链重组等多重因素影响,俄罗斯经济发展前景堪忧,在世界经济体系中的地位可能进一步下降。

The pace of Russia s economic growth has been slow since 2009 and the economy slumped into recession for a couple of times.The intrinsic causes of such a situation lie in the change in the country s political and social ecology apart from external factors such as the drop in oil prices and western sanctions.Having failed to enhance economic efficacy,the renationalization and the consolidation of a vertical power system triggered a series of negative consequences.The future of Russia s economy is unoptimistic and it is probable that the position of its economy in the global economic system will decline further as the country is under the impact of multiple factors such as climate change,energy transformation,new industrial revolution,and the restructuring of global supply chain.Russia is expected to undergo a historical change in the future.