基于全球气候保护指数的气候减缓努力评估

Assessment of Climate Mitigation Efforts based on the Global Climate Protection Index

当前全球距离实现2℃和1.5℃温控目标仍然存在较大差距,而各国对于气候变化减缓所做的努力也存在显著差异。因此,识别出需要进一步加强努力的国家以及各国在哪些方面需要进一步努力至关重要。在综合考虑应对气候变化的紧迫性、各国气候行动的异质性以及社会经济和技术发展水平的基础上,构建全球气候保护指数(GCPI),以定量评估各国在减缓气候变化方面的努力程度。该指数涵盖低碳技术、低碳能源、低碳经济和气候政策四个维度,包含15个指标。通过对覆盖全球85%以上二氧化碳排放的60个国家进行全面客观的评估,根据各国的得分表现,识别出卓有成效型、积极进取型、稳中有进型和潜力待放型四类国家,并进一步探究各国在不同维度的具体表现,为未来需要加强气候行动或开展合作的领域提供政策启示。研究发现:丹麦、爱尔兰、中国、英国、德国等国总体而言付出了极大努力以应对气候变化,但各国的气候保护努力各有所长,结合自身发展特点与优势领域的多边合作有利于共同推进全球气候治理进程,实现互利共赢。

At present, the global emission reduction efforts are still far from achieving the 2℃ and 1.5℃ targets. And there are substantial differences between the efforts made by countries in climate change mitigation. In this context, it is essential to identify the countries or dimensions in which efforts need to be enhanced. Considering the urgency of addressing climate change, the heterogeneity of climate actions among countries, and the level of socio-economic and technological development, the Global Climate Protection Index(GCPI) was constructed to quantitatively evaluate countries’ efforts to mitigate climate change degree. The index includes four dimensions of low-carbon technology,low-carbon energy, low-carbon economy and climate policy, and contains 15 indicators. The GCPI was applied to 60 countries, covering over 85% of global CO_(2) emissions. According to the results, four types of countries with high to low levels of climate protection efforts were identified, namely, highly effective, actively aggressive, stably progressing, and full of potential. The detailed performances of different dimensions for countries were further investigated, which can provide policy implications for fields where countries need to strengthen actions or cooperate in the future. The study found that Denmark, Ireland, China, the United Kingdom and Germany have made great efforts to deal with climate change in general. Also, each country has its own strengths in climate protection efforts. Multilateral cooperation in combination with one’ s own characteristics and advantageous fields is conducive to jointly advancing the process of global climate governance and achieving win-win results.