“社会统筹养老”是否真的挤出“家庭代际养老”和“个人自我养老”——对新型农村社会养老保险制度效果的再验证

Can“Social Pooling Elderly Care”Crowd Out “Family Intergenerational Elderly Care”and“Individual Self-Care”:A Revalidation of the Effect of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance

中国人口老龄化加深,同时"防返贫""乡村振兴""共同富裕"等诸多党中央战略所表达的社会福利函数的意义不断被强化,农村养老更成为社会关注的公共问题。本文基于2018年CHARLS数据,利用OLS估计、IV估计和3SLS等识别策略重新评估"新农保"对养老行为的政策效果,研究发现:"新农保"对"家庭代际养老"不再具有显著挤出效应,这与现有文献的结论有较大差异,说明在禀赋收入效应下"新农保"制度政策效应有减弱趋势,而"新农保"对"个人自我养老"则存在显著的挤出效应。与现有文献不同,本文还将"家庭代际养老"和"个人自我养老"同时作为重要解释变量进行了二者变量关系的识别,发现"家庭代际养老"显著挤出了"个人自我养老",而后者对前者无显著影响。本文采用与现有文献不同的方法和最新数据对"新农保"政策效果进行了重新验证,得出了有差异的结论并增强了结论的稳健性,使用行为经济学解释了家庭和个人养老行为选择,揭示了研究结论蕴含的跨期选择和代际关系的经济学意义,开启了"新农保"制度效果的黑箱。

As the deepening of population aging and the significance of social welfare functions expressed in many central party strategies,such as "poverty prevention", "rural revitalization" and "common prosperity",is constantly reinforced,rural retirement has become a public issue of social concern. Based on the 2018 CHARLS data,this paper re-evaluates the policy effect of " New Rural Social Pension Insurance" on retirement behavior using OLS estimation,IV estimation,and 3 SLS identification strategies. The study finds that the policy no longer has a significant crowding-out effect on "family intergenerational elderly care",which is significantly different from the existing literatures,indicating that the policy effect tends to weaken under the endowment income effect and it has a significant crowding-out effect on "individual self-care". Unlike the existing literatures,this paper takes "family intergenerational elderly care" and "individual self-care" as important explanatory variables and identifies the relationship between them. It is found that "family intergenerational elderly care" significantly squeezes out "individual self-care",while the latter has no significant impact on the former. This paper uses a different approach from the existing literatures and the latest data to revalidate the effects of " New Rural Social Pension Insurance" policy,draws differential conclusions and enhances the robustness of the findings,uses behavioral economics to explain household and individual retirement behavior choices,reveals the economic implications of intertemporal choices and intergenerational relationships embedded in the findings,and opens "the black box" of the effects of the " New Rural Social Pension Insurance".