风险偏好、政策干预与实地养分管理技术采纳——基于世行贷款农业面源污染治理项目的考察

Risk Preference,Policy Intervention and Adoption of Site-Specific Nutrient Management Technology:Based on Investigation of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Control Project Funded by Loans from World Bank

根据世行贷款农业面源污染治理项目村和非项目村1 190个地块数据,基于行为经济学的前景理论在测度农户风险偏好参数的基础上,利用bivariate probit模型探讨政策干预是否有助于缓解风险厌恶程度对农户实地养分管理技术采纳行为的抑制作用,并借助两阶段方法分析风险偏好和政策干预对肥料生产率和肥料投入环境效率的影响。结果表明:风险厌恶系数和对小概率事件重视系数对农户实地养分管理技术采纳行为具有消极影响,技术支持政策对实地养分管理技术采纳行为影响为正;绿色农业补贴政策能够缓解风险厌恶程度对农户实地养分管理技术采纳行为的抑制作用;对于完全采纳行为,绿色农业补贴政策和技术支持政策会产生正的环境效应。基于此,建议通过绿色农业补贴政策调节风险偏好对农户实地技术采纳行为的消极影响,实施精准培训和促进社会学习提高技术采纳水平。

This paper used the data of 1 190 plots of agricultural non-point source pollution control project and non-project villages funded with loans from the World Bank.Based on prospect theory of behavioral economics,it measured farmers’ risk preference coefficient and used bivariate probit model to explore whether policy intervention can help alleviate the inhibition of risk aversion on farmers’ site-specific nutrient management technology adoption behavior.Then the two-stage method was adopted to analyze the impact of risk preference and policy intervention on fertilizer productivity and environmental efficiency of fertilizers.The results show that the risk aversion coefficient and weighing coefficient of small probability events have negative effects on farmers’ SSNM technology adoption behavior,that technology support policies have a positive impact on the technology adoption behavior.Green agricultural subsidy policy can alleviate the inhibition of risk aversion on farmers’ technology adoption behavior.For complete adoption behavior,green agricultural subsidy and technology support policies will produce positive environmental effect.it is suggested that green agricultural subsidy policies be used to adjust the negative impact of risk preference on farmers’ adoption behavior.In addition,accurate training and social learning should be promoted to increase the probability of technology adoption.