气候变化情境设置影响农户风险偏好选择行为吗?——来自中国重庆的田野调查研究

Farmers’ Risk Preferences over Abstract and Climate Change Contextual Framing Experiments with Evidence from Chongqing of China

基于中国重庆市参与有情境实验设置的228户农户以及无情境设置的234户农户的问卷调查数据,采用统计检验和计量模型的方法,比较中国农户的风险偏好(风险厌恶和损失厌恶)在无情境设置和气候变化情境框架实验的差异,同时实证分析框架设置和人口统计特征如何影响受访农户的风险厌恶与损失厌恶。结果表明:(1)气候变化情境设置使农民更加厌恶风险和损失,损失厌恶的变化大于风险厌恶;(2)农户个体年龄、性别、常住人口数量、家庭位置、农药支出情况、农技培训和合作社参与情况对农户的风险偏好选择有显著影响。基于此,建议测量农户风险偏好时适当加入真实情境框架,组织广大农户参与农业技术培训,鼓励农户扩宽信息获取渠道,因人而异地推介符合农户风险偏好特征的生产决策等。

Based on unique data collected from a survey and a paired lottery experiment with context-setting completed by 228 farmers and without context-setting completed by 234 farmers in Chongqing City of China,statistics-testing methods and econometric models were used to compare Chinese farmers’ risk preferences(both risk aversion and loss aversion)over abstract and climate change contextual framing experiments and examine how subjects’ demographic characteristics affect their risk aversion and loss aversion.The results show that the setting of the climate change context makes farmers more averse to risk and loss,and the number of changes in loss aversion is greater than that in risk aversion.Meanwhile,the results also reveal that individual farmers’ age,gender,household population,household location,expenditures on pesticide,agricultural technology training and cooperative participation have impacts on farmers’ risk preferences.Therefore,it is proposed that real context be appropriately added when measuring farmers’ risk preference,organize farmers to participate in agricultural technology training,encourage farmers to broaden their access to information,and recommend production decisions in accordance with the characteristics of farmers’ risk preferences.