水果价格波动、产品替代性与南北空间差异

Fruit Price Fluctuations,Product Substitutability,and Spatial Differences Between Northern and Souther China

基于2009年1月—2020年12月我国36个重点城市面板数据,构建同截距同系数模型和变截距变系数模型分别考察蔬菜、肉禽和粮食等替代产品价格对水果价格的影响及其南北空间差异性。结果表明:(1)我国水果价格波动幅度存在南北空间差异,北方城市波动幅度普遍高于南方城市;(2)蔬菜、肉禽价格对水果价格具有显著的替代性影响,北方城市水果价格受替代性影响显著而南方城市受该影响不显著;(3)北粮南运使全国粮食供给稳定均衡,粮食价格对水果价格的替代性影响仅限于低收入城市且不存在南北空间差异。基于此,要稳定水果价格波动且实现全国水果市场的空间整合,建议完善水果价格的空间预警机制,实施水果市场区域差异化管理,出台支持"南果北调"的跨区域水果流通政策。

Based on the panel data from January 2009 to December 2020,a same-intercept,same-coefficient model and a variable-intercept,variable-coefficient model were separately constructed to inspect the impact of prices of substitute products such as vegetables,meat and poultry,and grain on prices of fruits in 36 large cities and the spatial differences between the northern and southern areas of the country.The results show that:(1)There exist some spatial differences between the northern and southern areas on price volatility of fruits in China.The volatility of northern cities is generally higher than that of southern cities.(2)The substitution influences of prices of vegetables,meat and poultry on fruit prices are significant.In addition,the substitution influences on fruit prices in northern cities are generally greater than those in southern cities.(3)The transportation of grain from the north to the south balances the grain supply across the country so that there is no spatial difference between the northern and southern cities in the substitution influences of grain prices on fruit prices.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the warning mechanism for fruit prices,implement regionally differentiated measures of management in fruit markets,and introduce cross-regional policies of fruit circulation that support the“South-to-North Transfer of Fruits”to calm down the fluctuations of fruit prices so as to realize the spatial integration of fruit prices in China.