国际木质林产品价格波动对中国木质林产品进、出口贸易量的影响研究

Impact of International Timber Forest Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Import and Export of Timber Forest Products

构建NARDL模型与基于SVAR模型的贸易引力模型,实证分析国际木质林产品价格波动方向、波动幅度对中国木质林产品进、出口贸易量的影响。结果表明:(1)中国木质林产品进、出口贸易量对国际木质林产品价格上涨、下跌的反应程度不同,中国原木、锯材、化学木浆进口量对价格下跌的反应更大,中国胶合板出口量对价格上涨的反应更大。(2)国际金融资产、能源价格对国际木质林产品价格均有显著正向影响,且对原木、锯材、胶合板价格的影响程度相同,但金融资产价格对化学木浆价格的影响程度大于能源价格的影响。(3)国际原木、锯材、胶合板市场价格下跌引发的波动更大,使中国原木、锯材进口量增加(0.73、0.94)、胶合板出口量减少(-2.10);国际化学木浆市场价格上涨引发的波动更大,使中国化学木浆进口量减少(-1.13)。(4)正向的金融冲击使中国原木、锯材、化学木浆进口量增加、胶合板出口量减少,影响力度由大到小为胶合板(-0.51)、化学木浆(0.38)、锯材(0.31)、原木(不显著);正向的能源冲击使中国原木、锯材进口量减少、胶合板出口量减少、化学木浆进口量增加,但均不显著,且影响程度均小于金融冲击。(5)正向的复合冲击会使中国原木、锯材、化学木浆进口量增加、胶合板出口量减少,其中锯材进口受到显著正向影响(0.08),胶合板出口受到显著负向影响(-0.02)。(6)中国与国外GDP增加,均使中国原木、锯材、化学木浆进口量增加、胶合板出口量增加,但化学木浆进口更受国内GDP影响,胶合板出口更受国外GDP影响。基于不同木质林产品国际价格波动的传导效应,应常态化做好应对工作以降低国际市场价格波动的冲击风险。

The NARDL model and the trade gravity model based on SVAR model were constructed to analyze the impacts that international timber forest product price fluctuations have on import and export of China’s timber forest products.The results showed that(1)China’s import and export of timber forest products had different responses to the rise and fall in the prices of international timber forest products.Specifically,China’s import of log,sawnwood and chemical wood pulp was more sensitive to falling prices while China’s plywood export was more responsive to rising prices.(2)International financial asset and energy prices had significant positive effects on international timber forest product prices.Among them,international financial asset and energy prices had the same influence on the prices of log,sawnwood and plywood,but the influences that international financial asset prices had on chemical wood pulp price were greater.(3)Larger price fluctuations of international log,sawnwood and plywood would increase China’s log and sawnwood import(0.73,0.94)and decrease China’s plywood export(-2.10),while larger price fluctuations of international chemical wood pulp would decrease China’s chemical wood pulp import(-1.13).(4)A positive financial shock would increase China’s import of log,sawnwood and chemical wood pulp and decrease China’s plywood export.The order of influence from strong to weak was plywood(-0.51),chemical wood pulp(0.38),sawnwood(0.31)and log(nonsignificant).And a positive energy shock would decrease China’s log and sawnwood import,increase China’s chemical wood pulp import,and decrease China’s plywood export.However,the effects were nonsignificant,and the effects of energy shock were lower than that of financial shock.(5)A positive compound shock would increase China’s log,sawnwood and chemical wood pulp import and decrease China’s plywood export.Among them,sawnwood import was significantly positively affected(0.08),and plywood export was significantly negatively affected(-0.02).(6)The increase of China’s and foreign GDP would increase the import of China’s log,sawnwood and chemical wood pulp,and the export of China’s plywood.Moreover,chemical wood pulp import was obviously more affected by domestic GDP,and plywood export was obviously more affected by foreign GDP.Based on the transmission effects of different international timber forest product price fluctuations,more efforts should be made in order to deal with them on a regular basis to constantly reduce the impact risk of international market price fluctuations.