摘要
2020年二季度,中国与澳大利亚的贸易关系出现恶化。将中国对澳大利亚进口煤炭的制裁政策作为一次准自然实验,将2018—2020年的进口煤炭、国内煤炭价格作为研究对象,利用双重差分与三重差分回归模型,着重研究了制裁政策对相关进口煤炭的价格效应。结果发现:进口制裁政策对澳大利亚5500大卡煤炭价格产生了负向价格效应,负向价格效应在制裁政策发布当期最显著,随后影响逐渐消退;制裁政策不会对澳大利亚出口其他国家的煤炭价格产生影响;在控制了煤炭消费、汇率等因素的影响后,新冠肺炎疫情对国内外煤炭价格产生的冲击并无显著差异。
In the second quarter of 2020, the trade relationship between China and Australia deteriorated. Taking China’s sanction policy on imported coal from Australia as a quasi-experiment and the prices of imported coal and domestic coal from 2018 to 2020 as the research objects, this paper focused on the price effect of the sanction policy on relevant imported coal by using DID(difference-in-differences) and DDD(difference-in-difference-in-differences) regression models. The results show that the import sanction policy has had a negative price effect on the price of 5500 kcal coal in Australia, and the negative price effect is the most significant in the period when the sanction policy is released, and then the impact gradually decreases;the sanction policy will not affect the Australian coal prices exported to other countries. The impact of COVID-19 on the domestic and foreign coal prices has no significant difference after the impact of coal consumption and exchange rate is controlled.
作者
郭昱臻
GUO Yu-zhen(HSBC Business School,Peking University,Beijing 100871)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2022年第3期1-8,共8页
基金
教育部人文社科基金项目“跨国并购企业的资本结构选择原因及优化对策研究”(编号:20YJC790030)。
关键词
国际贸易
进口制裁
煤炭价格
双重差分
international trade
import sanction
coal price
difference-in-differences
