南北经济差距时空演化与协调发展--基于县域层面NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据的实证研究

On the Spatio-temporal Evolution and Coordinated Development of North-South Economic Gap--An Empirical Study based on County-level NNP/VIIRS Nighttime Light Data

南北经济差距事关区域高质量协调发展大局。为明确南北经济差距时空演化情况,基于空间格局统计思想和2012—2020年长江经济带和黄河流域1784个县域单元NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据,利用标准差椭圆(SDE)、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)、局部空间自相关(LISA)集聚图等方法和工具,分析和比较经济密集性、方向性、关联性等。结果发现:南北经济均为倒丁字型分级结构,南方经济密集性高于北方且呈上升趋势;南北经济均呈东西方向空间分布格局,南方经济方向性在减弱而北方经济方向性有所强化;南方经济具有更强的关联性,南北经济主要表现为低值集聚和高值集聚,集聚结构单一。南北经济密集性南高北低的空间格局解释了南北经济差距形成的原因,而倒丁字型分级结构和LISA集聚演化情况表明,地区内差距和两极分化是形成差距的主要原因。推动南北经济高质量协调发展,须在明确南北经济低水平协调、方向性一致、重心距离缩短等现状的基础上,解决发展的不平衡不充分问题。一要推动南方地区依托优势区域构建一体化地区经济发展动力系统,加快北方地区增速换挡与城市群、增长极建设,提升南北地区内的经济密集性;二要打造倒三角型经济发展水平分级结构,夯实南北经济协调基础;三要通过硬件设施和软件条件建设,加强南北地区内和地区间的经济联系;四要有针对性地促进南方地区平衡发展和提高北方地区经济发展水平,着力破解倒丁字型分级结构和空间两极分化难题。

The North-South economic gap is relevant to the overall situation of regional high-quality and coordinated development.The authors use 1784 county-level NNP/VIIRS nighttime light data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2020,along with the methods of SDE and ESDA to analyze and compare the spatial and temporal evolution of economic density,directionality and relevance in the north and south regions based on the spatial pattern statistical thought.The result shows that:first,both the South and the North have an"inverted T-shaped"hierarchical structure,and the economic intensity in the South are higher than those in the North which show an upward trend;second,although the economy of the two regions shows an east-west spatial distribution pattern,the economic direction in the South is weakening while that in the North is strengthening;and third the economic relevance in the south is stronger than that in the north,both of which are mainly manifested in low-low agglomeration and high-high agglomeration,and the agglomeration structure is single.The spatial pattern of"south high and north low"in North-South economic density both explain the reasons for the gap’s formation.The"inverted T-shaped"hierarchical structure and the LISA agglomeration evolution indicate that intra-regional disparities and polarization are the main reasons for the formation of disparities.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the high quality and coordinated development of the North-South economy on the basis of clarifying the current situation of low-level coordination,consistent direction and the shortening distance between centers of gravity.First,we should encourage the southern region to build an integrated regional economic development power system relying on advantageous regions,speed up the shift of growth along with the construction of urban agglomerations and growth poles in the northern region,and enhance the economic intensity in both regions;second,it is necessary to consolidate the foundation of economic coordination by creating an inverted triangle economic intensity hierarchical structure;third,it is also necessary to strengthen the intra-regional and the inter-regional economic links through the construction of hardware facilities and software conditions;and fourth,we should promote the balanced development in the south and improve the level of economic development in the north,and strive to solve the major problems of inverted T-shaped hierarchical structure and spatial polarization.