贸易开放改善了粮食安全状况吗?--来自跨国面板数据的经验证据

Does Trade Openness Improve the Food Security Status?--Evidence from the Transnational Panel Data

2015年以来世界粮食不安全问题越来越严峻,威胁着全球越来越多人的生命安全和生计安全,每一个国家都不能置身事外。在此背景下,很多国家认识到贸易开放在保障粮食安全方面的重要作用并加以利用,越来越多国家依靠国际贸易来确保粮食安全。基于国家层面粮食安全四个支柱(供给、获取、稳定和利用),根据2001—2020年93个样本国家的跨国面板数据,构建作为基准模型的面板数据固定效应模型实证估计贸易开放对粮食安全的影响,验证贸易开放和粮食安全之间是否存在U型(或倒U型)相关关系,并进行稳健性检验和异质性分析。研究表明,贸易开放和粮食安全四个支柱之间均存在着U型相关关系,即贸易开放在早期阶段对粮食安全有显著负向影响,而当跨越特定门槛值之后,粮食安全状况会趋于改善;异质性分析表明,贸易开放对粮食安全的影响在不同收入水平国家不存在显著差异。一国通过扩大对外贸易开放特别是贸易政策改革持续融入国际市场,最终会有利于该国粮食安全状况改善;但考虑到其他经济与非经济因素的影响、贸易开放可能存在的消极作用和全球粮食贸易网络与供应链的脆弱性及不稳定性,确保合理的粮食自给率和促进粮食系统转型对于各国实现粮食安全是非常重要的。

The world’s food insecurity problem has become more and more serious since 2015,is threatening the lives and livelihoods of more and more people around the world,and no country can stay out of the way;in this context,many countries recognize the important role of trade openness in ensuring food security and make the most of it,and more and more countries rely on international trade to achieve food security.Based on the four pillars of food security at the national level(supply,access,stability and utilization),by using the transnational panel data of 93 sample countries from 2001 to 2020,the panel data fixed effect model as a baseline model is built to empirically estimate the impact of trade openness on food security,and whether there is a U-shaped(or inverted U-shaped)correlation between trade openness and food security is verified,and robustness tests and heterogeneity analysis is also carried out.The results show that,there is a U-shaped correlation between trade openness and the four pillars of food security,meaning that trade openness has a significant negative impact on food security in the early stages;and when a specific threshold is crossed,food security status tends to improve.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the impact of trade openness on food security does not differ significantly among countries with different income levels.This paper’s findings confirm that a country’s continued integration into international markets through expanding foreign trade openness,especially trade policy reforms,will ultimately contribute to the improvement of the country’s food security status;however,considering the impact of other economic and non-economic factors,the potential adverse effects of trade openness,and the fragility and instability of global food trade network and supply chain,ensuring a reasonable food self-sufficiency rate and promoting food system transition is also very important for every country to achieve food security.