中国宏观调控的政策性目标利率选择——基于美联储的经验

The Choice of Policy Target Interest Rate in China’s Macro-control——Based on the Federal Reserve’s Experience

在中国宏观金融调控的转型过程中,最为关键的是如何选择利率调控模式和政策性目标利率。本文梳理了美联储联邦基金目标利率调控模式的变化特点。通过对比美联储与中国人民银行的资产负债表的结构,本文探讨了联邦基金目标利率调控模式在中国的适用性,提出了中国基准利率的改革方向。本文采用GARCH(1,1)模型对中国政策性目标利率的选择进行了实证分析。研究表明:只有改变基础货币注入的主渠道才能为中国实施利率调控模式创造条件,DR001目标能否成为中国宏观调控所对应的政策性目标利率还需要一段时间的检验。

In the process of the transformation of China’s macro-financial regulation,the most crucial is how to choose the interest rate regulation model and policy target rate.This paper summarizes the characteristics of changes in the Fed’s federal fund target interest rate regulation model.By comparing the balance sheet structure of the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China(PBC),this paper discusses the applicability of the federal fund target interest rate regulation model in China and proposes the reform orientation of China’s benchmark interest rate.Through the GARCH(1,1)model,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the choice of policy target interest rate in China.The Paper shows that only changing the main channel of base money injection can PBC create conditions to implement the target federal fund rate regulation.Whether DR001 target can become the policy target rate corresponding to China’s macro-control or not still needs to be tested for a period of time.