中国经济增长与财政赤字的动态均衡及风险研究

Research on the Dynamic Equilibrium and Risk of China’s Economic Growth and Fiscal Deficit

经济增长与财政赤字之间的关系一直是宏观经济学领域研究的核心问题。基于1992年第1季度至2019年第4季度数据构建非线性动态系统模型,研究了中国经济增长与财政赤字的动态均衡及风险状况。结果显示:经济增长率与财政赤字率所构成的系统存在稳定的均衡点;扩大财政赤字,将会促进经济增长,同时经济增长率与财政赤字率的均衡值将会增大;缩小财政赤字,情况正好相反。进一步的分析发现,目前,中国的经济增长率与财政赤字率水平还处于可控范围之内,不存在发生较大风险的可能。但是,当经济增长下行压力变大时,财政赤字政策也要愈加积极;只要经济增长稳定,财政赤字率风险就会处于安全状态。此研究将对中国的财政赤字政策提供启示。

The relationship between economic growth and fiscal deficit has always been a core issue in the field of macroeconomics.Based on the data from the first quarter of 1992 to the fourth quarter of 2019,a nonlinear dynamic system model is constructed to study the dynamic equilibrium and risk status of economic growth and fiscal deficits.The results show that the system composed of economic growth rate and fiscal deficit rate has a stable equilibrium point;Expanding fiscal deficit will increase economic growth rate,and the equilibrium value of economic growth and fiscal deficit rate will increase;To reduce the fiscal deficit,the situation is just right on the contrary.Further analysis finds that,at present,China’s economic growth and fiscal deficit rate levels are still within a controllable range,and there is no possibility of greater risks.However,when the downward pressure on economic growth becomes greater,the deficit policy must be more active;As long as the economic growth is stable,the risk of the fiscal deficit rate will be in a safe state.The research will provide implications for China’s deficit policy.