自贸港时代海南旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调及预测

Research on the Coupling Coordination ofPrediction Between Tourism Economy andEcological Environment of Hainan in Free Trade Port Era

以自贸港时代为背景,构建离岛免税购物人数、离岛免税购物人均花费、生态文明村数量等特色指标,借助综合效益评价、耦合协调度模型、GM(1,1)预测模型进行定量研究。结果表明:综合效益指数随着时间推移而不断变化,总体呈现波动上升趋势,具有较明显的阶段性特征;耦合协调状态良好,呈现上升趋势,2011—2016年耦合协调度等级为勉强协调,2017—2020年耦合协调等级为中度协调;旅游经济效益指数与耦合协调发展关系清晰,两者模拟效果较好,具有正相关性;预测2021—2025年,两者耦合协调度将整体呈上升发展趋势,耦合协调度为优质协调。结合自贸港时代特征,在国家生态文明试验区、国际旅游消费中心、热带雨林国家公园建设等方面提出建议。

The thesis takes the era of free trade port as a background to construct characteristic indexes such as the number of duty-free shopping on outlying islands,per capita cost of duty-free shopping on departing Hainan island,the number of ecological civilized villages,etc.Quantitative research is carried out with the help of comprehensive benefit evaluation,coupling coordination degree model and GM(1,1)prediction model.The results indicate that:The comprehensive benefit index is changing over time,rising in fluctuation overall and showing obvious stage characteristics.The state of coupling coordination is fine and showing an upward trend.The degree of coupling coordination is barely coordinated from 2011 to 2016 and moderate coordination from 2017 to 2020.The relationship between the tourism economic benefit index and the coupling coordinated development is clear and the simulation results of the two are positively correlated.Forecasts for 2021 to 2025,the degree of coupling coordination of the two will show an overall upward trend and is high-quality coordination.Finally,combined with the characteristics of the free trade port era,suggestions were made on the construction of national ecological civilization pilot zone,international tourism consumption center and tropical rain forest national park.