粤港澳大湾区港口供应链优化研究

The Optimization of Port Supply Chain in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

为充分发挥粤港澳大湾区港口的竞争优势,促进港口经济的协调发展,文章基于粤港澳大湾区主要港口的实际情况,构建供应链博弈模型并进行数值仿真,研究相关因素对深圳港和香港港绩效的影响。研究结果表明:随着商品价格和库存成本的提高,货物从深圳港向香港港转移,但转移幅度逐渐趋缓;深圳港在中低端商品的货源收集方面具有明显的竞争优势,而香港港对高端商品的吸引力更强;货运结构逐渐向中高端商品过渡对于提高港口收益具有促进作用,其中深圳港应通过降低商品库存成本而降低经营风险;深中通道和港珠澳大桥通车有效缩短腹地运输时间,对于绝大部分商品价格和库存成本组合都将提高粤港澳大湾区港口的总收益。

In order to give full play to the competitive advantages of the ports in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and promote the coordinated of port economy,this paper constructed a supply chain game model and carried out numerical simulation to study the impact of relevant factors on the performance of Shenzhen port and Hong Kong port,based on the actual situation of the main ports in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.The results showed that with the increase of commodity price and inventory cost,goods were transferred from Shenzhen port to Hong Kong port,but the transfer range gradually slowed down.Shenzhen port had obvious competitive advantages in the supply collection of medium and low-end goods,while Hong Kong port was more attractive to high-end goods.The gradual transition of freight structure to medium and high-end commodities could promote the improvement of port revenue.Among them,Shenzhen port should reduce the operation risk by reducing the cost of commodity inventory.The opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan channel and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge would effectively shorten the transportation time in the hinterland,and would increase the total revenue of the ports in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area for most of the combination of commodity prices and inventory costs.