阿富汗大变局:地缘政治和安全格局的演变

Great Political Changes in Afghanistan:The Evolution of Geopolitics and Security Pattern

当前,阿富汗正在经历重大变局。阿富汗塔利班(阿塔)成功卷土重来,并且完成临时政府组建。尽管仍有多重挑战,但阿塔执政已不存在根本性威胁。这引发阿富汗地缘政治格局和地区安全形势的深度调整。在地缘政治格局方面,整体呈现“美国西方影响力下降,地区国家影响力上升”这一“东升西降”趋势。美国正在从“局内人”变为“局外人”,但仍将发挥重要作用;印度和巴基斯坦在阿富汗影响力此消彼长,巴基斯坦影响力持续提升,印度则损失很大;伊朗在阿富汗影响力有所提升,实际影响仅次于巴基斯坦;俄罗斯在阿富汗问题.上也成功“卷土重来”。在地区安全方面,阿塔重新夺取政权以及美国撤军并不意味着阿富汗及地区反恐战争就此结束,阿富汗和地区安全形势将面临一些新的挑战,呈现更大的不确定性。例如,阿塔与“伊斯兰国”呼罗珊分支之争成为阿富汗内部的主要安全矛盾;阿塔与“基地”组织及其附庸组织彻底切割的难度很大,“基地”组织大概率会继续在阿富汗境内存在和活动;阿富汗安全形势将在中亚和巴基斯坦两个方向产生外溢效应,对地区安全影响深远。

At present,Afghanistan is undergoing great changes and Afghan Taliban returned to power. Although there are still multiple challenges,there is no fundamental threat to Afghan Taliban ’s governance. The influence of the United States and the West has declined,while the influence of regional countries has increased. Nevertheless, the U. S. remains an important player in Afghanistan. The influence of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan has reversed,with India declining and Pakistan rising;Iran’s influence in Afghanistan has improved,and its actual influence is second only to Pakistan. Russia has made a successful comeback in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban’s regaining power and the withdrawal of U. S. troops do not mean the end of the war against terrorism in Afghanistan and the region. The security situation will face some new challenges and show greater uncertainty. The disputes between Afghan Taliban and ISIS-Khorasan have become the main security contradiction within Afghanistan. It is very difficult for Afghan Taliban to be completely cut off from Al Qaeda and its affiliated organizations. The security situation in Afghanistan would have spillover effects in both Central Asia and Pakistan,which will have a far-reaching impact on regional security.