气候变化背景下未来中国近海风能资源预估

FUTURE PROJECTION OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES OVER CHINA’S OFFSHORE AREAS UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)资料对气候变化背景下未来中国近海风能资源开展预估,研究表明SSP245和SSP585这2种代表性情景下2015—2100年南海中北部大部分海域出现风速增大的趋势,东海大部分海域表现出风速减小的趋势,而黄、渤海的风速变化则相对较弱;SSP585情景下风速变化方向与SSP245情景相同,幅度和显著性均有明显增强;SSP585情景下21世纪中期2041—2060年相对于历史气候时期1991—2010年,南海中北部的风功率密度和容量系数的相对变化极值分别达到约8%和6%,东海各要素的相对变化极值分别约为-12%和-9%,而中国大陆离岸100 km以内海域各要素的变化在±5%以内。

Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase six(CMIP6)simulation results,future projection of wind energy resources over China’s offshore areas under different climate change scenarios is carried out in this article.The results showd that under the two typical scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585,sea surface wind speed(SSWS)over most of the north and central South China Sea exhibits increasing trend for the years of 2015—2010,and SSWS over most of the East China Sea shows decreasing trend,whereas SSWS over the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea both changes relatively weakly;the direction of SSWS changes over the north and central South China Sea and the East China Sea under the SSP585 scenario is similar to these under the SSP245 scenario,with magnitudes and significances of SSWS trends enhanced.Under the SSP585 scenario,the maximum relative changes of wind power density and capacity factor over the north and central of South China Sea are about 8%and 6%respectively for 21 th Century middle term(2041—2060)compared with historical climate period(1990—2010),and the maximum relative changes of these parameters over the East China Sea are about-12%and-9%respectively,whereas their changes within 100 km near-shore areas of China's Mainland are within±5%.