苏南地区主要森林病虫害潜在生境预测——以句容市为例

Prediction of Potential Habitats for Major Forest Diseases and Pests in Southern Jiangsu——A Case Study in Jurong City

以江苏省南部林业重点市句容为研究对象,收集2014年松材线虫、杨树桑天牛、竹蝗、樟巢螟4种森林病虫害空间分布数据,采用最大熵法生态位模型,对4种森林病虫害的潜在生境进行空间分析及预测。研究表明:研究区森林病虫害潜在生境与地形、植被、土壤、人为干扰等生态环境因子密切相关;4种森林病虫害的MaxEnt模型诊断价值均达到中等、较高水平,杨树桑天牛的诊断价值最高,竹蝗次之,松材线虫、樟巢螟较低;4种森林病虫害的潜在生境适宜概率与寄主植物的空间分布呈现高度的一致性,其发生面积比例均在15%以上。

The ecological niche model based on maximum entropy was chosen to predict the potential habitats of four forest pests and diseases in Jurong City,a key forestry city of southern Jiangsu based on the spatial distribution data of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus,Apriona germari,Ceracris nigricornis and Orthaga achatina in 2014.The research showed that the potential habitat of forest pests and diseases was closely related to ecological environmental factors such as terrain,vegetation,soil,and human disturbance;the diagnostic values of the MaxEnt model of the four forest diseases and pests reached medium and high level,and the diagnostic value of Apriona germari was the highest,followed by the Ceracris nigricornis,while the Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and the Orthaga achatina were lower;the potential habitat suitability probability of four forest diseases and pests was highly consistent with the spatial distribution of host plants,and the proportion of occurrence area was above 15%.