近代淮河流域自然灾害与人口的变动

Natural Disasters and Population Changes in the Huaihe River Basin in Modern Times

近代淮河流域,灾害的多发性,对农村社会造成严重危机,尤其对农村人口的变动带来了深远的影响。该文借助人口学的相关理论与方法,运用历史文献对自然灾害打击下的近代淮河流域的农村人口数量的变动、迁移以及人口素质的变化进行考察和分析。研究认为:在灾害的打击下,农村人口数量发生变动,特别是一些大的灾荒造成的人口死亡率较高,这些严重影响人口的再生产;灾荒还导致大量人口迁移他乡,人口的迁移对人口数量的变动也产生负面影响;另外,灾害还致使社会经济下滑,社会环境和生活水平下降,从而导致灾区的人口素质不断降低。

In modern Huaihe River Basin,the frequent occurrence of disasters caused a serious crisis to rural society,especially the change of rural population.With the help of relevant theories and methods of demography and historical documents,this paper investigates and analyzes the changes of rural population quantity,migration and population quality in the modern Huaihe River Basin under the impact of natural disasters.The study shows that under the impact of disasters,the number of rural population has changed,especially the high population mortality caused by some major disasters,which seriously affect the reproduction of the population;Famine also led to a large number of people moving to other places,and population migration also had a negative impact on the change of population;In addition,the disaster also led to the decline of social economy,social environment and living standards,resulting in the continuous decline of the quality of the population in the disaster area.