气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的影响及对策响应

Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Production in Northeast China and Countermeasures

东北地区粮食生产是国家粮食安全战略的重要保障,近年来受气候变化等因素的影响,东北地区粮食生产的不稳定性与风险性加大,积极响应气候变化对粮食生产的影响已成为稳定东北地区粮食生产的内在要求。本研究从东北地区气候变化特征出发,对主要粮食作物的生长发育、产量、种植制度与布局、粮食生产潜力等方面综合分析气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的影响。结果表明:①东北地区日照时数明显减少,降水量呈下降态势,气温显著升高。②东北地区旱涝灾害发生频率增加,病虫灾害累计发生面积增大,低温冷害事件明显减少。③气候变化改变东北地区主要粮食作物的生长发育,促进种植界限北移东扩,粮食生产潜力有明显提升但存在区域差异性,总体而言,气候变化有利于东北地区粮食生产。针对气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的综合影响,基于粮食产前、产中、产后视角,提出适应气候变化稳定东北地区粮食生产的响应策略,对于保障东北地区粮食安全具有重要意义。

Grain production in Northeast China is an important guarantee of the national food security strategy.In recent years,affected by climate change and other factors,the instability and risk of grain production in Northeast China have increased.Responding positively to the impact of climate change on grain production has become the inherent requirement of stabilizing grain production in Northeast China.Based on the characteristics of climate change in Northeast China,this paper comprehensively analyzed the impact of climate change on grain production in Northeast China from the aspects of the growth,yield,planting system and distribution of main grain crops,and grain production potential.The results showed that:①The sunshine hours decreased significantly,the precipitation decreased,and the temperature increased significantly in Northeast China.②The frequency of drought and flood disasters in Northeast China increased,the accumulated area of disease and insect disasters increased,and the events of cold injury decreased significantly;③Climate change has changed the growth and development of major grain crops in Northeast China,promoted the expansion of planting limits to the north and east,and significantly improved the grain production potential with regional differences.In general,climate change is beneficial to grain production in Northeast China.In view of the comprehensive impact of climate change on grain production in Northeast China,based on the perspectives of pre-production,in-production and post-production of grain,this paper proposes response strategies to adapt to climate change and stabilize grain production in Northeast China,which is of great significance for ensuring grain security in Northeast China.