不同气候情景下红带锥蝽在中国潜在适生区预估

Potential distribution of Triatoma rubrofasciata under different climatic scenarios in China

目的明确不同气候情景下红带锥蝽在中国的潜在适生区,为红带锥蝽预防控制规划提供参考。方法使用ENMtool和ArcGIS 10.5软件筛选红带锥蝽在全球的分布点数据;用maxent 3.4.4和R 3.6.0语言软件根据环境变量贡献率、刀切法以及变量相关性分析对气候变量进行筛选;使用R语言软件计算模型调控倍频和特征组合用以调整最大熵模型(MaxEnt)参数;利用MaxEnt模型预估历史气候情境和未来不同气候情景条件下红带锥蝽在中国的潜在分布范围。结果共筛选出73个红带锥蝽分布点;MaxEnt模型结果中,训练遗漏率与理论遗漏率吻合度高,模型曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.990。MaxEnt模型预估历史情景下红带锥蝽潜在适生区分布在我国华南地区,在未来低等强迫(ssp126)和中高等强迫(ssp370)情景下,总适生区面积分别呈现出下降与小幅上升趋势,但是高适生区面积整体上升。结论随着气候变化,红带锥蝽在我国的的潜在适生区范围将从广东、广西、海南、台湾4省扩大到江西、湖北、安徽、湖南、福建、云南、四川、西藏等省(自治区),其中江西北部地区将有可能存在红带锥蝽的高适生区。研究为我国红带锥蝽的防治、监测、预警提供了理论依据。

Objective To investigate the potential distribution of Triatoma rubrofasciata in China under different climatic scenarios,to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control planning of T.rubrofasciata.Methods ENMtool and ArcGIS 10.5 softwares were used to screen out the data of the global distribution sites of T.rubrofasciata;maxent 3.4.4 and R 3.6.0 softwares were used to screen out climatic variables based on the contribution rate of environmental variables,the jackknife method,and the correlation analysis of variables;R language was used to calculate the regularization multiplier and features for MaxEnt model,and the MaxEnt model was used to project the potential distribution of T.rubrofasciata in China under the historical scenario and different scenarios in future.Results A total of 73 distribution sites of T.rubrofasciata were screened out;in the MaxEnt model,training omission rate was highly consistent with projected omission rate,and the model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of0.990.Under the historical scenario,Southeast China was the potential distribution area of T.rubrofasciata;under the ssp126 and ssp370 scenarios in future,overall distribution area tended to decrease and slightly increase,respectively,but the highly suitable distribution area tended to increase.Conclusion With the change in climate,the potential distribution area of T.rubrofasciata in China may expand from Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan,and Taiwan to Jiangxi,Hubei,Anhui,Hunan,Fujian,Yunnan,Sichuan,and Tibet,and the highly suitable distribution area of T.rubrofasciata may exist in northern Jiangxi.The study provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control,surveillance,and early warning of T.rubrofasciata.