木质林产品贸易格局的社会网络分析

Social Network Analysis of the Trade Pattern of Wood Products

基于2001—2018年区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)成员国的木质林产品进出口贸易数据,采用社会网络方法分析RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易网络格局。研究表明:RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易联系比较紧密且贸易关系日益复杂;RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易网络正向着最优的网络形态发展且木质林产品贸易往来趋于平衡;RCEP成员国之间签署、生效和升级自由贸易协定会加强RCEP成员国之间的木质林产品贸易关系;截至2018年,中国的木质林产品贸易地位已取代日本在RCEP木质林产品贸易网络中的核心位置,成为唯一的核心国家。因此,中国一方面要重视RCEP成员国的木质林产品市场,以此为契机促进更高水平的对外开放,推进全球贸易自由化;另一方面,中国木质林产品要依托质量、品牌、技术、管理创新等提高产品附加值,通过高质量发展来提高价值链分工地位,通过实施双循环战略实现国内国际双循环相互促进,提升国际竞争力,进而获取较高的贸易利得,确保中国木质林产品贸易的健康和可持续发展。

⑴Background——China's trade status and trade security of wood products are now facing challenges.At the same time,the RCEP agreement was officially signed in November 2020.Therefore,it is of great significance to grasp the topological structure of the wood product trade network between China and other RCEP members,as well as the status of China in it and the changes in its status.⑵Methods——Based on the import and export trade data of wood products in 15 RCEP members from 2001 to 2018,social network methods are used to study and analyze the trade network pattern of wood products in RCEP members.⑶Results——①Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 and the global financial crisis in 2008,the trade network density,degree and strength of wood products in RCEP members have all declined,and the trade relations of RCEP wood products have been loosen and trade volume has been dropped.However,the signing,coming into force and upgrading of free trade agreements among RCEP members have strengthened the trade relations of wood products among RCEP members.The wood products trade network of RCEP members is developing towards the optimal network form,and the trade exchanges between countries tend to be balanced.②After RCEP takes effect in the future,the trade network density of wood products in RCEP members is expected to reach 1.And RCEP members are expected to have a degree of 14,which means that there is trade in wood products among all countries.The connectivity of the wood products trade network will be greatly improved and the intensity of each country will gradually increase.After the RCEP takes effect,the regional economic integration will be further deepened,and a country can more reasonably allocate the trade volume to different countries.China is likely to become the only core country,and it is in the highest position in the wood products trade network of RCEP members.③The trade volume of RCEP wood products has little influence on the connectivity and tightness of the network.From the overall trend,the trade of wood products among RCEP members is gradually increasing,but the range is not large.On the whole,there is still room for development in the connectivity of the wood products trade network of RCEP members.④Trade in wood products among RCEP members tends to be balanced.⑤With the increasing core of the trade network,China has gradually become the only core country.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Facing the current complex international situation,RCEP has an important stabilizing and balancing effect on China's wood product trade,and provides new opportunities for the development of China's wood product trade.However,it is not enough to rely on exogenous factors to promote the promotion of China's trade status.The mode of obtaining meagre trade benefits through the expansion of export scale is no longer sustainable.Therefore,on the one hand.China must attach importance to the market of RCEP members to stabilize China's trade status and take it as an opportunity to promote a higher level of opening up and promote global trade liberalization.On the other hand,it is even more important that China's wood products should develop endogenously,relying on quality,brand,technology,management innovation,etc.to increase the added value of products.The status of the value chain division of labor should be improved through high-quality development,and he mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles can be realized by implementing a dual-cycle strategy,which is necessary to enhance international competitiveness,and obtain higher trade profits,so as to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of China's wood product trade.