对保障重点产业供应链安全的战略思考

Strategic Thinking on Ensuring the Supply Chain Security of Key Industries

供应链安全是国家安全的重要组成部分。我国重点产业供应链安全问题值得高度关注。农业方面,部分农产品供应链全链条存在安全风险,可能引发结构性失衡;制造业方面,高端技术和核心零部件进口依赖度高、生产环节高端技术落后,卡脖子现象突出、制造业核心环节外迁导致区域供应链重组乃至空心化风险;战略资源供应链面临采购渠道中断与运输路线受限等风险。国际物流服务供应链在连接能力、物流设备数量、网络化规模等方面与发达国家存在较大的差距;美元全球支付地位短期难以撼动,国际支付体系可能面临切断风险,跨国企业采购与供应相关的资金交易安全面临挑战。今后一段时间,重点产业面临全球供应链新变局:全球供应链短链化发展,区域转移与国内替代渐成潮流;全球数字鸿沟加大,数字主权争夺加速全球供应链结构调整;亚太区域竞争与潜在冲突增加我国供应链断链风险。为此,应打造农业闭环生态链系统,技术赋能助力供应链结构性平衡;加快裂变创新与多业融合,构建制造业韧性供应链生态体系;加大全球矿产资源供应链控制权,实现全链条可防可控;补齐国际航运供应链短板,搭建全球产业重构的基础设施;加速发展数字货币,构建具有主导权的供应链金融交易网络。

Supply chain security is an important part of national security.China's supply chain security of key industries deserves great attention.In agriculture,the entire supply chains of some agricultural products have security risks,which may cause structural imbalances.In manufacturing,high-end technology and core components are highly dependent on imports,and the high-end technology in the production segment is backward.The prominent“bottleneck”phenomenon and the relocation of core manufacturing segment lead to the risks of restructuring and even hollowing out regional supply chains.The supply chain of strategic resources faces risks such as the interruption of procurement channels and restricted transportation routes.The supply chain of international logistics service has a big gap with developed countries and needs improvement on connection capacity,equipment volume,network scale,etc.The status of US dollars in the global payment system is difficult to challenge in the short term,the international payment system may face the risk of being cut off,and the fund transactions related to the procurement and supply of transnational companies encounter security challenges.For some time to come,key industries will face the new changes of global supply chain:global supply chain tends to be shortened,and regional shifts and domestic substitutions become popular;the global digital divide is widening,and the competition on digital sovereignty accelerates the structural adjustment of global supply chain;the growing conflicts and potential competition in the Asia-Pacific region increase China's risk of supply chain disruption.In order to deal with these risks,a closed-loop agricultural ecological system empowered by technology should be built to promote the structural balance of the supply chain;fission innovation and multi-industry integration should be accelerated to build a resilient ecosystem of manufacturing supply chain;control over the supply chain of global mineral resources should be enhanced to achieve management over the whole chain;shortcomings of the international shipping supply chain should be made up to build an infrastructure for global industrial restructuring;the development of digital currency should be accelerated to build a network with dominance on financial transaction of supply chains.