基于EKC理论的干旱区典型城市经济增长与工业污染的耦合关系研究——以乌鲁木齐市为例

The Coupling Relationship Between Economic Growth and Industrial Pollution in Typical Cities in Arid Area Based on EKC Theory——A Case Study of Urumqi

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论模型,利用乌鲁木齐市2005—2018年数据研究经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,选取人均GDP为经济增长指标,工业"三废"等为环境污染指标,利用回归模型拟合经济增长指标与各环境污染指标的EKC曲线。结果发现,人均GDP与工业"三废"综合指标的拟合曲线呈"倒U型",人均GDP与其他环境污染指标之间的拟合曲线也呈"倒U型"关系。但不同的环境污染指标所呈现的"倒U型"阶段有所不同,有些环境污染指标的EKC曲线主要处在"倒U型"曲线的左半段,有些则在"倒U型"曲线的右半段,且各环境污染已超过EKC曲线的拐点,但达到拐点时的经济增长水平有所不同。

The relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution was studied based on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)by using the data collected in Urumqi from 2005 to 2018 in the paper.To obtain the EKC curve for fitting the relationship between the economic growth indicators and environmental pollution index by regression model,the per capita GDP was adopted as the economic growth index and industrial“three wastes”was adopted as the environmental pollution index. The EKC regression curve revealed that the inverted “U-shape” was presented either the relationship between the per capita GDP and comprehensive index of industrial“three wastes”or the relationship between the per capita GDP and other environmental pollution indices. However,environmental pollution indices appeared in different parts of the inverted“U-shaped”,namely,some were mainly in the left,or others mainly in the right half of the inverted“U-shaped”curve,and each of environmental pollution had exceeded the point of inflection of the EKC curve.Also,the level of the economic growth was different at the point of inflection.