环保目标治理如何促进污染减排?——基于中国首次约束性减排目标计划的分析

How Does Environmental Target Governance Promote Pollution Reduction?——An Analysis of the First Obligatory Pollution Reduction Target Plan in China

以五年规划为代表的目标治理是中国推动经济转型的制度创新,在生态环境保护方面发挥着具有中国特色的减排效果。以"十一五"期间首次约束性减排目标计划为例,基于双重差分模型,分别从源头治理与末端治理、环保投资与环保监管两大维度分析环保目标治理如何促进污染减排,识别这种目标治理下中国式减排的特征与源泉。研究发现:从减排特征来看,在"十一五"规划约束性减排目标计划下,SO_(2)减排以末端治理为主,一旦对地方施以更大的减排"加码压力",不仅能实现向源头治理主导的转变,而且减排效果会大大提高。究其动力源泉,提高环保投资的治理效率是实现SO_(2)减排的最大动力,环保监管的约束力只有在地方承受较大的"加码压力"时才会存在,这也是推动减排向源头治理转变的重要方式。此外,本文还发现中央"加码压力"对地方经济带来了负面影响,但会在污染减排上表现出空间溢出效应。对SO_(2)排放的环保目标治理还会使工业烟(粉)尘产生以末端治理为主的协同减排。本文认为要想使环保目标治理产生更大减排效果,需要合理运用环保目标治理体系,进一步加强源头治理,继续提高环保投资的治理效率,激活环保监管约束,形成减排投资驱动与监管约束的双动能。

Target governance reflected in the five-year plan,which is an institutional innovation to promote economic transformation in China,plays an important role in emission reduction with Chinese characteristics in terms of ecological and environmental protection.Taking the first obligatory emission reduction target plan during the 11 th five-year plan period as an example,adopting difference-in-difference method,this paper analyzes how environmental protection target governance promotes pollution reduction from the two dimensions of source governance and end governance,environmental protection investment and environmental protection supervision,and identifies the characteristics and sources of Chinese emission reduction under this environmental target governance.The research shows that the provinces with higher emission reduction targets set by central government have more prominent emission reduction effects on industrial SO_(2) emissions.Especially,when the targets set by the central government are higher than those set by local governments,it will not only realize the shift to source governance,but also greatly improve the emission reduction effect.Considering the driving force,improving the governance efficiency of environmental protection investment is the biggest power to achieve SO_(2) emission reduction.And the binding effect by environmental regulatory constraints exists only when the local area is under great“increased pressure”,which is also an important way to promote the transformation of emission reduction to source governance.What’s more,the research also finds that the central“increasing pressure”has a negative impact on local economy,but shows a spatial spillover effect on pollution reduction.The target governance of SO_(2) emission will also lead to the coordinated emission reduction of industrial smoke and dust mainly by the end treatment.In a word,in order to ensure greater emission reduction by environmental target governance,it is necessary to rationally use the governance system of environmental protection targets,improve the governance efficiency of environmental protection investment,activate law enforcement constraints,and form the dual power of both investment and regulatory constraints for emission reduction.