美国国家安全战略视阈下的中美关系50年

China-US Relations in the Perspective of the US National Security Strategy:A 50-Year Review

自1972年中美关系“破冰”以来,美国国家安全战略视阈之内的中美关系经历了1972—1989年、1989—2017年以及2017年之后三个阶段。在这三个阶段中,制衡、塑造与争胜先后成为美国对华战略的逻辑核心。在第一阶段,美国对华的国家安全战略逻辑是“借重以制衡”,即借助中国来平衡苏联,中国在20世纪80年代一度被美国视为“友好的非盟国”。在持续时间最长的第二阶段,美国的国家安全战略逻辑是通过“接触以塑造”,希望塑造中国的政治经济模式以及对外行为方式。在20世纪90年代末期中国一度被美国视为潜在的战略伙伴。在2017年以来的第三阶段,美国试图通过“竞争以制胜”,防止中国的发展超越美国,美国国家安全战略视阈内的中国以及中美关系全面转向消极。50年来,中美关系经历过两次转向和重构,目前第二次转向和重构仍在进行中。过去50年,中美关系总是关系到美国全局性国家安全利益的重大问题;美国国家安全战略中的涉华部分超越党派之争,有着较强的一致性和连贯性,很多议题和提法都长期存在,或者早有伏笔。在美国国家安全战略中,涉华议题的内容越来越多,也越来越丰富;中美关系的合作面和竞争面都有明显增长,但竞争面的比重大幅上升。

Since Nixon’s visit to China in 1972,Sino-US relations have gone through three phases in the perspective of the US national security strategy:1971-1989,1989-2017,and beyond 2017.During the three phases,checking and balancing the Soviet Union,shaping China’s behavior and striving for superiority in its competition with China have successively become the core logic of the US strategy toward China.To be more specific,in the first phase,the logic of the US strategy toward China focused on using China to gain advantage over the the Soviet Union.In the 1980s,China was once considered a“friendly non-ally”by the United States.The second phase lasted 28 years.In this period,the rationale for the US strategy toward China was“shaping through engagement”in the hope of molding China’s political and economic models and its external behavior in the process of engagement.At one point in the late 1990s,China was even treated as a potential strategic partner.The third phase began in 2017.To avoid being overtaken by China,the United States chose to“compete to win”that led to a complete strategic shift to a negative view of China and the US-China relations.Over the past 50 years,the bilateral relationship has undergone two turns and reconfigurations,with the second one still in progress.Throughout this period,the US-China relationship has always been a key concern for the United States as regards its overall national security interests.The China-related components of the US national security strategy have transcended partisan differences and exhibited strong consistency and coherence,many of which have been around for a long time,or have been foreshadowed in advance.Undoubtedly,China-related issues are increasingly being added to and fleshed out in the US national security strategy.In the long run,there would be a greater potential for both cooperation and competition,with competition strongly outweighing cooperation.