模糊盟友:联盟体系视角下的美国与土耳其关系

Ambiguous Allies:The US-Turkey Relations from an Alliance Perspective

联盟是美国二战后维持全球影响力的重要外交工具。在其诸多盟友中,土耳其极为特殊,在两国正式的盟友关系背后是脆弱多变、充满矛盾冲突、似乎随时崩裂而又难以割舍的复杂关系。这种关系不仅在美国的传统盟友当中罕见,与美国中东战略伙伴相比也显得与众不同,因此研究美土关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。以“模糊盟友”概念构建的综合分析框架既突出地缘战略、全球化、地区力量分化重组等结构性因素对美土关系的制约,也强调两国政府和领导人的战略和政策选择在美土盟友关系转型过程中的作用。在结构性因素与过程性因素的综合作用下,美土关系从传统盟友向“模糊盟友”转变,产生的后果广泛而深远,不仅重塑美国和土耳其的地区战略,影响到地区安全秩序,也为美国的联盟体系带来不确定性。

The alliance system is an important diplomatic instrument for the United States to maintain its global influence in the post-war era.Among all the US allies,Turkey is an extremely special one in that behind the formal alliance lies a fragile and volatile relationship that is not only complex but also full of contradictions and conflicts,with the two countries seemingly ready to break up at any moment yet hard to separate from each other.Such a relationship is completely different from the relations of the United States with its traditional allies and strategic partners in the Middle East.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study their bilateral relations.The concept of“ambiguous allies”provides us with an integrated analytical framework that not only highlights the constraints of such structural factors as geo-strategy,globalization,realignment of regional powers on the US-Turkey relations,but also underlines the role of strategies and policy choices made by the two governments and their leaders in the transformation of the US-Turkey alliance.Under the influence of both structural and process factors,the US-Turkey alliance is shifting from a traditional alliance to an ambiguous one,which will not only exert a comprehensive and far-reaching impact on the two countries’regional strategies and regional security order,but also bring new uncertainties to the alliance system of the United States.