中国省域二氧化碳排放达峰情景预测及实现路径研究

Research on Carbon Dioxid Emissions Peaking Scenario Prediction and Realization Path in Chinese Provinces

中国政府提出的2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和的承诺对推动经济社会绿色转型和系统性深刻变革具有重要意义。测算了中国各省2005-2019年脱钩系数,分析了经济增长与碳排放脱钩状态。在测算碳排放强度的基础上,对不同经济增长模式下的碳排放量进行了情景预测。结果表明:中部和西部地区部分经济欠发达省份经济增长和碳排放脱钩状态为扩张性负脱钩,其余地区处于强脱钩或弱脱钩状态。不同经济增长模式下,碳达峰年份有差异。考虑到中国社会经济实际状况,最可能情形为混合式增长模式下大部分省份于2026年左右实现碳达峰。最后,从碳交易市场体系、能源体系、技术创新、生活流通、法律法规等方面给出了碳达峰的实现路径。

China has pledged to reach carbon neutral by 2060 and proposed to implement the national carbon emission peak action efficiently by 2030.It is the great significance to promoting the green transformation of society and economy.The paper calculates the decoupling coefficient of 2005-2019,and analyzes the decoupling state of economic growth and carbon emissions.Based on the measurement of the carbon emission intensity,the paper predicts the carbon emissions in different economic growth models.The results show that decoupling states of economic growth and carbon emissions of underdeveloped provinces in the central and western regions are expansive negative decoupling,while the rest are in the state of strong or weak decoupling.Different economic growth models vary carbon peaking years.Considering the actual situation of China’s society and economy,the most likely situation is that most provinces achieved the carbon peaking around 2026 under the mixed growth model.Finally,the carbon peaking realization path is given from the carbon trading market system,energy system,technological innovation,living and circulation,laws and regulations.