劳动力转移对中国粮食生产的影响——基于2020年全国10省份农户调查数据的经验研究

Labor Nonfarm Employment and Grain Production in Rural China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Rural Households Survey Data in China’s Ten Provinces in 2020

在新劳动力迁移经济学的理论基础上,利用2020年中国乡村振兴综合调查(CRRS)的农户数据,在综合考虑劳动力转移对家庭粮食生产的劳动力损失效应和收入效应的情况下,考察了劳动力转移对中国粮食生产的影响。研究发现,劳动力转移及异地转移虽然由于减少了农户粮食生产劳动投入而对其粮食产出产生了不利的影响,但这种不利影响却由粮食生产资本要素投入的增加而得到较大程度的补偿,最终使得劳动力转移对农户粮食产出所产生的负面影响并不大,这或许是改革开放以来中国农村劳动力转移规模不断扩大但全国粮食总产量依然保持长期稳定增长的原因之一。上述研究结论的一个潜在政策含义就是,未来持续推进城市化及农村劳动力转移进程并不必然伴之以粮食产出水平的显著下降。当然,在此发展过程中,采取相应政策措施来抵消农村劳动力转移对粮食生产的不利影响、确保粮食供应稳定也属应有之义。

Comprehensively considering the lost-labor effects and the income effects of labor nonfarm employment in the framework of new economics of labor migration,the effects of labor nonfarm employment on grain production in rural China have been analyzed by using rural households’ data of China Rural Revitalization Survey(CRRS)in 2020.The results of this study show that although labor nonfarm employment have caused labor inputs of grain production and grain output to decrease,the negative effects have been largely compensated by increasing capital inputs of grain production,which means the negative effects of labor nonfarm employment on the grain output are slight.This might be one of the reasons why China’s total grain output has been growing steadily for a long period accompanied by an expanding scale of rural labor nonfarm employment.The results of this paper imply that promoting the process of urbanization and rural labor nonfarm employment in the future may not be followed by significant falling of grain output in China.meanwhile,of course,some measures should be taken to offset the negative effects of labor nonfarm employment on the grain production and ensure security of grain supply.