生育数量对中国农村父母寿命的影响研究

The Impact of Number of Children on the Longevity of Parents in Rural China

在老龄化加剧和三孩政策落地的共同背景下,生育与寿命权衡假说(即生育数量越多,寿命越短)对于中国样本是否成立呢?本文基于2014-2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)数据,将已去世的农村老年人作为研究对象,研究生育数量对其寿命的影响,实证研究后发现:生育与寿命权衡假说可能仅存在于生育男孩数量对农村母亲寿命的影响中。相反,生育数量越多,尤其是女孩数量越多,父母寿命越长,这一积极作用在对父亲寿命的影响中更为显著。具体表现为:第一,孩子数量(尤其是女孩数量)对父母寿命存在显著正向影响,即每增加1个孩子,父母寿命增加0.42岁,每增加1个女孩,父母寿命增加0.56岁。第二,孩子数量、男孩数量和女孩数量均会对父亲寿命产生积极影响,并且女孩数量对父亲寿命的影响大于男孩数量;但生育数量对母亲寿命并无显著正向影响,甚至男孩数量会对母亲寿命产生负向影响。第三,生育男孩或女孩数量对城镇父母的寿命均无显著影响。第四,较晚的初育年龄与最后一胎生育年龄均对父母寿命存在显著正向影响(尤其是母亲的寿命)。因此,回答上述问题能够为积极生育政策的制定提供经验依据,有利于促进生育政策和健康老龄化政策的配套衔接,在提高生育水平的同时不降低老年人健康福利。

Against the combined backdrop of increasing ageing and the implementation of the three-child policy,does the fertility-lifespan trade-off hypothesis,that is,the higher the number of children,the shorter the lifespan,hold true for the Chinese sample? Based on the data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)from 2014 to 2018,taking the dead rural elderly as the research object,this paper studies the impact of the number of children on their longevity. After empirical research,it is found that the fertility-lifespan trade-off hypothesis may only exist in the impact of the number of boys on the longevity of rural mothers. On the contrary,the more children,especially the more girls,the longer the longevity of parents,which is more significantly reflected in the impact on the longevity of fathers. The results show that:first,the number of children,especially the number of girls,has a significant positive impact on parents’ longevity,that is,for every additional child,parents’ longevity increases by 0.42 years,and for every additional girl,parents’ longevity increases by 0.56 years. Second,the number of children,boys and girls will have a positive impact on the longevity of fathers,and the impact of the number of girls on the life span of fathers is greater than that of boys. However,the number of children has no significant positive impact on mother’s longevity,and even the number of boys has a negative impact on mother’s longevity.Third,the number of boys or girls has no significant effect on the longevity of urban parents. Fourth,delaying the age at first birth and the age at last birth have a significant positive impact on parents’ longevity,especially on mothers’ longevity. Therefore,answering the above questions can provide empirical basis for the formulation of active fertility policy,promote the matching connection between fertility policy and healthy aging policy,and achieve the goal of improving fertility level without reducing the health welfare of the elderly.