中国独生子女与多子女老年人养老意愿的比较分析

A Comparative Analysis of Only-child and Multi-child Elderly’s Care Preferences in China

文章利用2018年“中国老年社会追踪调查”数据分析独生子女、多子女老年人的养老意愿及其影响因素。研究发现城乡超过40%的老年人有入住养老院意愿,拥有独生子女的老年人半数以上预期会入住养老院,远高于拥有2孩及以上的多子女老年人。日常得到子女情感支持的独生子女、多子女老年人更可能选择居家养老;家庭中实际养老照料人越多的多子女老年人入住养老院的可能性越低。居住社区差异对独生子女、多子女老年人的养老意愿具有显著影响,居住在街坊型社区与商品房社区的独生子女、多子女老年人入住养老院的意愿更高;居住在保障性住房社区的多子女老年人更可能选择居家养老。区域社会经济差异会促使多子女老年人、东部和东北部地区的独生子女老年人入住养老院的意愿上升,同时会促使中部、西部地区的独生子女老年人入住养老院的意愿降低。城镇户籍会增强独生子女、多子女老年人入住养老院的意愿,且这种促进效应在同一区域内的多子女老年人中更为突出。少子老龄化时期社会养老服务体系规划需要根据老年人的差异性和多样性做出适度调整。

Using the data of China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey in 2018,this paper reveals the current status of only-child and multi-child elderly in China.And the determinants influencing the elderly’s care preferences are also analyzed.It is found that more than 40%of the elderly in urban and rural areas are will⁃ing to live in nursing homes in future.More than half of the only-child elderly are expected to live in nurs⁃ing homes,which is higher than the elderly with two and above children.Those elderly with two and above children having more actual caretakers in the family have lower possibility to have preference to live in nurse home.And only-child elderly and elderly with two and above children receiving the emotional sup⁃port from their children in daily life have lower possibility to have preference to live in nurse home.Resi⁃dential differentiation affects the elderly’s care preference.The only-child elderly and the elderly with two and above children living in neighborhood communities and commercial housing communities are more like⁃ly to have preference for living in nursing homes,while the elderly with two and above children living in in⁃demnificatory housing communities have lower possibility to live in nurse home.Regional socio-economic differences will increase the possibility of the elderly with two and above children and the one-child elderly to go to nurse home in the future in the eastern and northeastern areas,while it will reduce the willingness of the only-child elderly to live in nursing homes in the central and western areas in China.Urban house⁃hold registration will increase the risk of the elderly living in nursing homes,and this promotion effect is the strongest among the elderly with two and above children living in the same region.The planning of the social care service system needs to adapt according to the diversities and differences of the elderly under the background of below replacement fertility and population aging.