长江经济带城市经济高质量发展的时空演变与收敛性

Research on Spatial-temporal Pattern and Convergence of Urban Economic High-quality Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

文章以长江经济带108个地级及以上城市为研究样本,运用熵值法对其2010—2019年的经济高质量发展水平进行测度,并基于核密度估计法、面板回归模型和空间杜宾模型对城市经济高质量发展水平的时空演变特征以及收敛趋势进行分析。结果显示:10年间,长江经济带城市经济高质量发展水平整体呈现上升趋势,且上中下游地区均有不同程度的提升;城市经济高质量发展水平呈现由上游地区到下游地区逐渐增强的空间分布特征,上游地区呈现出典型的"中心—外围"结构特征,中游地区层级分化现象明显,高值主要集中在下游地区;长江经济带城市经济高质量发展存在σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,且存在正向的空间溢出效应;上中下游地区均存在俱乐部收敛,但在收敛速度和空间效应方面具有异质性,忽略空间效应会导致收敛速度被低估。

Taking 108 prefecture level and above cities in the Yangtze River economic belt as research samples,this paper measures their high-quality economic development level from 2010 to 2019 by using entropy method,and analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and convergence trend of urban high-quality economic development level based on kernel density estimation method,panel regression model,and spatial Durbin model.The results show that in the past 10 years,the overall high-quality economic development level of cities in the Yangtze River economic belt has shown an upward trend,and the upper,middle,and lower reaches have improved to varying degrees;the high-quality development level of urban economy presents the characteristics of spatial distribution gradually increasing from the upstream area to the downstream area,the upstream area presents the typical"center-periphery"structural characteristics,the hierarchical differentiation in the middle reaches is obvious,and the high value is mainly concentrated in the downstream area;there areσconvergence,absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence in the high-quality development of urban economy in the Yangtze River economic belt,and there is a positive spatial spillover effect;there is club convergence in the upstream,middle,and downstream areas,but it has heterogeneity in convergence speed and spatial effect.Ignoring spatial effect will lead to underestimated convergence speed.